Activities – Insight Foresight Institute

Futures of Science for Policy in Europe: Scenarios and Policy Implications

Insight Foresight Institute participated in the Foresight on Demand consortium studying “Futures of Science for Policy in Europe: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. The study developed key trends shaping the future of science-for-policy ecosystems in the European Union, analyzing challenges and opportunities arising from the growing role of scientific advice in public decision-making. The work was part of the larger platform project named “European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe” for the European Commission, coordinated by Totti Könnölä, the CEO of Insight Foresight Institute.

The report explores how knowledge should be exchanged between actors and policy-makers to strengthen scientifically informed policies in Europe. Science is increasingly visible in public debates, and governments are more willing to mobilize diverse advice mechanisms. However, this creates tensions around the control of knowledge production, responsibility for decisions, and the integration of both expert and lay knowledge.

Five scenarios for 2030 illustrate alternative futures for science-for-policy ecosystems:

Scenario A – Mission-oriented research and policy: Science and policy align around societal challenges, fostering co-creation and stakeholder collaboration, while raising questions about risks for traditional disciplines.

Scenario B – Participatory science and policy ‘under construction’: Citizens, NGOs, and grassroots actors gain influence in shaping research and advice, challenging established institutions and broadening the notion of evidence.

Scenario C – Data enthusiasm and AI dominance: Over-reliance on AI and multinational data providers risks transparency, autonomy, and critical reflection in scientific advice.

Scenario D – Open science and policy support: Open science strengthens transparency and access to knowledge, but also highlights the need for protected spaces where unpopular yet rigorous opinions can be expressed.

Scenario E – Policy-based evidence-making in industrial policy: Incumbent-driven strategies prioritize corporate interests, embedding advice mechanisms within government agencies but risking bias and reduced innovation diversity.

Across these scenarios, the study identifies key policy implications:

Science-for-policy ecosystems must balance inclusiveness with quality, safeguarding resilience against populism and corporate capture.
Deliberation and alignment of public policies which would enable the interaction betweem knowledge production and decision.
A value-based approach is essential, recognizing that science is not neutral and should engage openly with ethical and societal debates.

This work highlights the dynamic relationship between science and democracy in Europe. Open, pluralistic, and future-oriented science-for-policy ecosystems can foster responsibility, accountability, and resilience in addressing societal challenges.

Additional information

Leena Sarvaranta, Albert-Bravo-Biosca, Bruna De Marchi, Rene Von Schomberg, Matthias Weber and Totti Könnölä. “Futures of Science for Policy in Europe: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. Publication Office of the European Union, 2024.

Acess to full report

Futures of Science for Policy in Europe: Scenarios and Policy Implications

Futures of Using Nature in Rural and Marine Europe in 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications

The CEO of Insight Foresight Institute, Totti Könnölä, coordinated this project of the Foresight on Demand consortium. The project explored transformative scenarios for Europe’s rural and marine areas in 2050, examining their implications for current R&I policy across four critical dimensions: (i) Economy and technology, (ii) Demographics, lifestyles and values, (iii) Governance, and (iv) Environmental sustainability. The aim was to analyse how the Anthropocene’s accelerated social and technological changes—particularly the extensive use and misuse of Earth’s resources—might reshape Europe’s territorial development pathways, and to derive actionable policy insights for sustainable transition.

The project was one of eight Deep Dive Foresight Studies in the project ‘European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe’. The expert team identified factors of change and organised two scenarios and one policy implications workshops, also engaging experts from academia, business and public administration around Europe. The process was also supported by discussions in the Horizon Europe Foresight Network.

The foresight project developed four scenarios of Europe’s rural and marine futures by 2050:

Scenario A – European Civic Ecovillages: Local communities pursue self-sufficiency and cooperative economies, restoring ecosystems on land and sea but focusing mainly on regional crises.

Scenario B – Sustainable High-tech Europe: European businesses achieve global leadership in regenerative high-tech solutions, yet face barriers to scaling up and achieving systemic biodiversity gains.

Scenario C – United States of Europe: A centrally planned model balances intensive land and sea use with large conservation zones, creating positive impacts on biodiversity but limiting decentralization.

Scenario D – European Permacrisis: A fragmented, post-growth Europe struggles with political division, weak innovation, and ineffective biodiversity protection.

Policy implications included:

Tackling risks of fragmented land use that weaken ecosystems and reduce resilience.

Advancing integrated spatial planning of urban, rural, and marine areas, including extended user rights and new ownership models.

Balancing sustainability with affordability and food security in agriculture and aquaculture.

Developing both local and global solutions to climate and biodiversity crises, ensuring scalability and coherence.

The scenarios underlined that no single solution can fully resolve global climate and biodiversity challenges. Instead, Europe must foster balanced, multi-level approaches that combine innovation, governance, and inclusive societal engagement to ensure resilience and sustainability.

Additional information

Totti Könnölä, Martha Bakker, Francois Simard, David Shaw, Philine Warnke. “Futures of Using Nature in Rural and Marine Europe: Scenarios and Policy Implications ”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Acess to full report

Futures of Using Nature in Rural and Marine Europe in 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications

Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe in 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications

Insight Foresight Institute participated in the project “Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe in 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. The report examined the transformative impact of the green transition on the EU labour market, alongside digitalisation and automation, through a set of future scenarios for green technological leadership and socio-techncal transitions in Europe.

Scenario A – Green technology-intensive Europe, struggling to fill all the green jobs. The European Union has advanced in a green transition across society and has gained global leadership in green technologies, resulting from aligned efforts.

Scenario B – Apocalypse soon, fighting skills mismatches in a degraded environment. After failed climate policy efforts, a sharp deterioration of the climate and the multiplication of extreme natural-related events, the environment is in a critical state in Europe and globally.

Scenario C – Feeling the pain, a workface left behind in a non-green world. This scenario represents increasing environmental pressures from man-made climate change that have not been effectively addressed over the past decades.

Scenario D – Green leapfrogging, old Europe surrounded by new green giants. In 2050, third countries and regions have leapfrogged leaving Europe behind. The world has seen geopolitical shifts, but also an improved environment.

Each of the four depicted futures stimulated further discussion on multiple implications for current R&I policy, and collectively gave rise to the following conclusions:

There will be no green transition without a strong, vocational education and training (VET) skills base.

The shared understanding of what green means is reconfigured over time.

The talent base for green skills must be expanded.

Green development paths are shaped by emerging technologies; emerging technologies should also be shaped by green skills.

Based on this work, INRS and other European experts were invited to participate in a foresight network focusing on green skills and jobs in Europe by 2050. The article “L’Avenir des Compétences et des Emplois Verts en Europe en 2050: Scénario et Implications Politiques; Conséquences pour la Prévention des Risques Professionnels’” presents a summary of the discussion.

Additional information

Mikkel Knudsen, Marjolein Caniëls, Peter Dickinson, Michel Hery, Heila Lotz-Sisitka and Totti Könnölä. “Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe in 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Acess to full reports

Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe in 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications

L’Avenir des Compétences et des Emplois Verts en Europe en 2050: Scénario et Implications Politiques; Conséquences pour la Prévention des Risques Professionnels

Futures of Innovation and Intellectual Property Regulation in 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications

Insight Foresight Institute participated in the project “Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation 2040”. The project explored how evolving dimensions of innovation could reshape intellectual property regimen by 2040 and their societal impacts, with a focus on implications for European research and innovation policy.

The work was part of the larger platform project named “European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe” for the European Commission, coordinated by Totti Könnölä, the CEO of Insight Foresight Institute and implemented by the Foresight on Demand consortium. The following five scenario narratives from 2040 are the result of the work in the scenario workshop and the subsequent internal discussions of the expert team:

Scenario 1: The end of IP as we know it. By 2040, the digitalisation of the economy has been completed in all sectors. The private interests of platform companies drive the collection of lots of data, which is the main source of IP.

Scenario 2: ‘Creative destruction’ of the IP regime. In 2040, the scenario is driven by the private interests of big companies in computing, ICT, medical devices, machinery and pharma which are located in the Global North and which are experienced players in the intellectual property system.

Scenario 3: IP as a battlefield of geopolitics. In the context of rising geopolitical tensions, IP has become an instrument for different regions to protect their commercial interests, complementing their trade strategies. Europe focuses on granting high-quality patents.

Scenario 4: Global and balanced IP for open innovation. Following a series of extreme weather events, health crises and wars, the achievement and implementation of science-based innovative solutions to global challenges is a key policy priority. Ips serve their main purpose by defining the boundaries of the inventions.

Scenario 5: Open-source collaboration globalized innovation. By 2040, the IPR regimes for physical and information goods have diverged and are by and large disjunct. Open-source collaboration dominates innovation of digital and other intangible goods.

Throughout these five scenarios, policy implications are elaborated. Since IPRs are only an instrument to foster and direct innovation, implications for R&D and innovation policy need to be elaborated as much as the role of IPRs in achieving the SDGs, particularly in tackling climate change.

Additional information

Knut Blind, Mirko Böhm, Catalina Martínez, Andrea Renda, Claudia Tapia, Nikolaus Thumm, Matthias Weber and Totti Könnölä. “Futures of Innovation and Intellectual Property Regulation in 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Acess to full report

Futures of Innovation and Intellectual Property Regulation in 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications

Futures of Food Consumption in 2035 in Europe: On Sustainability, Health and Technology

Insight Foresight Institute (IFI) is a partner of the Consumer Observatory of the EIT Food, supported by the European Union. The Consumer Observatory is considered Europe’s central hub for current and future consumer insights on agrifood topics. IFI coordinated a foresight exercise that explored the future of food consumption and the agrifood ecosystem in Europe in 2035, with a particular focus on emerging technological opportunities and on the spectrum of (un)sustainable and (un)healthy consumer choices.

Exploring alternative scenarios broadens one’s perspective, extending it further into the future and revealing potential threats and opportunities that might otherwise be overlooked or dismissed as improbable. While scenarios often include both a future end-state and the pathway leading there, in this case, the narratives (written in the present tense, as if already set in the future) each portray a different day in the year 2035. During the summer and autumn 2024, Insight Foresight Institute organised online workshops to develop four alternative future scenarios:

Scenario A: Green and me – A day in the European high-tech food ecosystem in 2035.

Scenario B: Frugal and local – A day in a European localised food sector driven by community values in 2035.

Scenario C: Cost and control – A day in a European decayed food ecosystem focused on industrial efficiency in 2035.

Scenario D: Highs and lows – A day in a European unequal high-tech food ecosystem in 2035.

The analysis of the four scenarios for food consumption led to the identification of a number of issues that could be relevant for today’s decision-makers.

Guiding consumers towards one-health choices.
Embracing innovative (new and ancient) mood-related food ingredients.
Prioritising animal welfare.
Mainstreaming precision nutrition.
Scaling up localised food systems.
Embracing soilless agriculture.
Empowering farmers and prosumer communities.
High-tech risks.
Balancing global vs local dynamics.

Additional information

Totti Könnölä, Insight Foresight Institute. “Futures of Food Consumption in 2035 in Europe: On Sustainability, Health and Technology”- EIT Food Consumer Observatory, co-funded by the European Union. Published in August 2025.

Acess to full briefing paper

Futures of Food Consumption in 2035 in Europe: On Sustainability, Health and Technology