The team of Insight Foresight Institute developed this study alongside experts from Fraunhofer ISI and AIT. The study examined five alternative scenarios for Europe in 2040 emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic’s disruption, focusing on their implications for EU research and innovation policy. The aim was to analyze how the pandemic’s amplification of global uncertainties might reshape long-term R&I priorities, and to provide policymakers with strategic perspectives on potential post-crisis evolution paths.
Based on extensive literature review and expert workshops, the study outlines five scenarios reflecting divergent futures shaped by the pandemic’s long-term effects on research, innovation, and social resilience. Rather than predicting a single outcome, these scenarios serve as strategic narratives to stimulate policy reflection and guide future decisions, exploring a range of possibilities in economic recovery, political cohesion, and societal transformation.
The five scenarios include:
- Long Recession – Europe faces sustained economic stagnation, rising nationalism, and shrinking public R&I investments.
- Back to ‘Normal’ – Attempts to return to pre-pandemic normalcy led to institutional stagnation.
- Techno-Feudal Europe – Technological power concentrates in private hands, weakening democratic oversight.
- Circular trials and real-life errors scenario – Economic model based on sharing, leasing, reuse, repair, refurbish and recycling in an (almost) closed loop.
- Green Utopia – A transformation towards equity and ecological sustainability through coordinated green transitions.
The authors outline the core methodology, including horizon scanning and scenario-building. It positions research and innovation (R&I) as central levers for navigating uncertainty and advancing EU objectives. Emphasizing the need for:
- Control over technological development.
- Resilience, adaptability and crisis preparedness for times of crises.
- The key role of education.
- EU level financing for R&I.
- Regional disparities in R&I performance.
- Defining future priorities in R&I policy.
The report concludes with a call to reimagine Europe’s future beyond recovery—to build a more inclusive, forward-looking, and resilient Union. It recognizes that Covid-19 was not merely a crisis, but a pivotal moment to reshape the trajectories of European integration, innovation, and sustainability.
Authors
European Commission. Dictorate-General for Research and Innovation – Kerstin Cuhls (coordination, Fraunhofer ISI), Aaron Rosa (Fraunhofer ISI), Matthias Weber (AIT), Susanne Giesecke (AIT), Dana Wasserbacher (AIT), Totti Könnölä (IFI).
In response to the new business reality of the world VUCA (comes from the words in English: volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity), companies develop their activities, increasingly, in networks of collaborators and develop their own ecosystems to be able to innovate. an agile and connected way. These networks and ecosystems also open opportunities to improve foresight and technological intelligence both to identify and connect new signals and to interpret their relevance.
