Activities – Page 3 – Insight Foresight Institute

Scenarios on Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering

The CEO of Insight Foresight Institute, Totti Könnölä, led the team of experts, Albert Norström, Benjamin K. Sovacool, Duncan McLaren, and Sirkku Juhola to develop alternative scenarios for climate mitigation and adaptation. The work was part of the project “Foresight for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2024-2027)” conducted by the Foresight on Demand Consortium. The objective was to synthesise expert insights from the “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering” Deep Dive (June-October 2022), providing strategic intelligence to inform the European Commission’s DG RTD on potential research and innovation (R&I) pathways for climate challenges.

By exploring climate risks, research frontiers, and societal change drivers, the project developed four distinct scenarios for Europe’s climate future towards 2040. The scenarios offer strategic lenses to anticipate possible developments, challenges, and opportunities for European R&I policy. The scenario-building approach identified four core axes shaping future pathways:

Global governance: The degree of international coordination on climate policy.

Sustainable lifestyles: The depth of societal transformation towards low-carbon consumption and living.

Risk acceptance: Societal openness to experimentation with climate innovations, including emerging or controversial technologies.

Activism: The vibrancy and diversity of civic engagement—from formal institutions to disruptive grassroots movements.

The Four Climate Scenarios

1. Sustainable Transition

The EU establishes itself as a global leader in climate policy through robust governance, citizen assemblies, and large-scale adoption of nature-based solutions. Responsible R&I policy guides innovation, supporting transparent frameworks for carbon removal and exporting European climate innovations worldwide. Social engagement is institutionalized, and the precautionary principle is reinterpreted to enable transformative experimentation.

2. Coalition of Sustainable Communities

Here, Europe witnesses a profound decentralization of power, with resilient communities leading the shift away from consumption and ownership towards sharing, cooperation, and connection with nature. Social innovation is driven from the bottom up, and local food and energy systems become central to sustainability. Pluralism, grassroots democracy, and circular economies thrive.

3. Deepening Divisions

An escalation in populism and nationalism leads to fragmentation within Europe and a breakdown of international climate collaboration. Rising inequalities, polarized societies, and ineffective adaptation efforts amplify climate impacts and social unrest. Technology adoption is uneven, and public debate is dominated by misinformation and radical activism.

4. The Technological Fix

This scenario envisions a future where major technology firms and market forces drive climate responses. Europe bets on breakthrough technologies—such as geoengineering, advanced renewables, and large-scale hydrogen—but at the expense of social cohesion and civic engagement. Market mechanisms and tech innovation accelerate, but disparities widen and social innovation lags behind.

Strategic Recommendations for Horizon Europe:
Drawing on these scenarios and trends, the chapter recommends:

Enhancing Resilience: Policies should prioritize flexibility and science-based adaptation to climate uncertainties.

Fostering Inclusivity: R&I programmes must enable dialogue, ethical reflection, and societal engagement on climate solutions.

Integrating Approaches: Combining social innovation with emerging technologies is essential for a just and sustainable transition.

Strengthening Leadership: The EU can lead by example, promoting responsible climate governance and supporting transformative research.

By mapping alternative scenarios and emerging trends, Chapter 5 provides strategic intelligence for Horizon Europe’s 2nd Strategic Plan. The analysis underscores the importance of proactive, inclusive, and forward-looking R&I policies to accelerate climate mitigation and adaptation—securing Europe’s leadership in sustainability for the coming decades.

Further information

Totti Könnölä, Albert Norström, Benjamin K. Sovacool, Duncan McLaren, Sirkku Juhola. “Climate Change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering”, Chapter 5, In European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Foresight on demand – “Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe.”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe – Case Study 2: Climate Change, Research and Innovation

After the New Normal: Scenarios for Europe in the Post Covid-19 World

The team of Insight Foresight Institute developed this study alongside experts from Fraunhofer ISI and AIT. The study examined five alternative scenarios for Europe in 2040 emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic’s disruption, focusing on their implications for EU research and innovation policy. The aim was to analyze how the pandemic’s amplification of global uncertainties might reshape long-term R&I priorities, and to provide policymakers with strategic perspectives on potential post-crisis evolution paths.

Based on extensive literature review and expert workshops, the study outlines five scenarios reflecting divergent futures shaped by the pandemic’s long-term effects on research, innovation, and social resilience. Rather than predicting a single outcome, these scenarios serve as strategic narratives to stimulate policy reflection and guide future decisions, exploring a range of possibilities in economic recovery, political cohesion, and societal transformation.

The five scenarios include:

Long Recession – Europe faces sustained economic stagnation, rising nationalism, and shrinking public R&I investments.
Back to ‘Normal’ – Attempts to return to pre-pandemic normalcy led to institutional stagnation.
Techno-Feudal Europe – Technological power concentrates in private hands, weakening democratic oversight.
Circular trials and real-life errors scenario – Economic model based on sharing, leasing, reuse, repair, refurbish and recycling in an (almost) closed loop.
Green Utopia – A transformation towards equity and ecological sustainability through coordinated green transitions.

The authors outline the core methodology, including horizon scanning and scenario-building. It positions research and innovation (R&I) as central levers for navigating uncertainty and advancing EU objectives. Emphasizing the need for:

Control over technological development.
Resilience, adaptability and crisis preparedness for times of crises.
The key role of education.
EU level financing for R&I.
Regional disparities in R&I performance.
Defining future priorities in R&I policy.

The report concludes with a call to reimagine Europe’s future beyond recovery—to build a more inclusive, forward-looking, and resilient Union. It recognizes that Covid-19 was not merely a crisis, but a pivotal moment to reshape the trajectories of European integration, innovation, and sustainability.

Authors

European Commission. Dictorate-General for Research and Innovation – Kerstin Cuhls (coordination, Fraunhofer ISI), Aaron Rosa (Fraunhofer ISI), Matthias Weber (AIT), Susanne Giesecke (AIT), Dana Wasserbacher (AIT), Totti Könnölä (IFI).

Acess to full report

After the new normal: Scenarios for Europe in the post Covid-19 world. A Foresight on Demand Project.

ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation

The IFI team, contributed to the development of this project alongside a team formed by the members of Technopolis Group, Austrian Institute of Technologies. A roadmap on the area of industrial technology, focused on human-centric R&I is developed. The work was performed under the European Commission framework contract “Foresight on Demand” and was completed in May 2024.

Human centricity is one of the three pillars of Industry 5.0. This Roadmap shows how industrial innovation ecosystem stakeholders can take a leading role in achieving human-centric outcomes in technology development and adoption, such as improving workers’ safety and wellbeing, upskilling or learning. There are significant opportunities to capture the transformative potential of ground-breaking technologies like artificial intelligence and virtual worlds through more human-centric and user-driven design approaches. The roadmap recommends that policy makers support integrating human-centricity considerations in education and training, R&I funding and in company training and innovation strategies.

The study starts by explaining the basis of its research: Industry 5.0 and Human-centricity. Industry 5.0 represents a transformative vision of the industry, positioning it as a driver of sustainability, resilience, and human-centricity. This vision supports a paradigm shift toward industries that operate within planetary boundaries, leave no one behind, and actively contribute to well-being and planetary regeneration.

Human-centricity is one of the three pillars of Industry 5.0, aligning with the European Commission’s priorities for an Economy that Works for People, alongside initiatives for a Europe Fit for the Digital Age and the EU Green Deal. In other words, it is a framework that places human needs, characteristics and experiences at the centre of design, development and implementation of technological solutions. Historically, human-centricity in technology development has been approached through Human-Centred Design (HCD).

However, the adoption of human-centric approaches faces important challenges. Difficulties in technology design encompass the absence of practical guidelines and standards, the complexity arising from required high customisation, and the difficulty in adopting a multidisciplinary approach involving ergonomics, behavioural science, cognitive processes, and socio-cultural dimensions within the manufacturing workforce.

Adoption and implementation of human-centric approaches to technology need further evidence of a favourable return on investment and are faced with complications due to the multidisciplinary requirements in deployment, attracting a skilled workforce, ensuring harmonious integration with existing infrastructure, budget constraints and increased workloads during scale-up.

The roadmap outlines key dimensions for advancing human-centricity in Industry 5.0 taking the previous challenges into account:

Technologies and their potential: the roadmap identifies technologies that leverage human creativity and intelligent machines to create resource-efficient, user-centred manufacturing solutions.
Organizational environment: it focuses on processes, methods, and managerial practices that enhance human-centricity, such as human-centred design processes and workflow management.
R&I investments: highlights public and private sector investments in human-centric technologies and start-ups.
Framework conditions: examines societal, demographic, and governance drivers, as well as skills, competencies, and infrastructure needed to support human-centricity.

Authors

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Seán O’Reagain, Lura Roman, Doris Schröcker, Evgeni Evgeniev and Peter Dröl. With the collaboration of Orestas Strauka Carmen Moreno, Izabella Martins Grapengiesser, Krystel Montpetit, Viola Peter, Karl-Heinz Leitner, Huu-Quynh-Huong Nyuyen, Nico Pintar, Wolfram Rhomberg, Manfred Tscheligi, Setareh Zafari and Totti Könnölä . ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation – Foresight on demand (FoD), Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Acess to full report

ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation

IFI joins AMETIC, our president to lead the innovation commission

AMETIC’s Board of Directors has ratified the incorporation of IFI as a new associate to AMETIC and appointed José Manuel Leceta, the president of IFI’s high-level advisory board, as the president of AMETIC’s innovation committee.

AMETIC is the association representing the digital industry sector in Spain, from SMEs to large global companies in the fields of Information Technologies, Telecommunications, Electronics Industry, Digital Content and Services, Digital Transformation, Enabling Technologies, Banking, Energy, Sustainability, etc. AMETIC is also made up of other sector associations at a territorial level and technology parks.

The Innovation Commission deals with cross-cutting innovation activity that is fundamental for promoting an internationally competitive digital industry. The work of the commission focuses on public policies to support R&I, deployed in the State R&I strategies and plans and the instruments defined therein, as well as in international R&I programmes such as Horizon Europe, Digital Europe Programme, among others.

For more information

https://ametic.es/comisiones/comision-de-innovacion/

IFI in the Forum of Cities, towards the circular economy

Managing Director of Insight Foresight Institute (IFI), Totti Könnölä participates in the round table on cities that move towards the circular economy, in the third edition of the Forum of the Cities of Madrid IFEMA (13-15 June 2018) that will once again offer a a cross-sectional look at the world of cities, their innovative management and the role played by all the actors that interact in urban environments.

CITIES THAT TRANSIT TO THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY

Afternoon session 15.45-17.20, 14 June.

Opening presentation

• City of Madrid. Inés Sabanés, Councilor of the Government Area of Environment and Mobility.

Discussion-round table

• City of Girona. Empar Vila, Head of Urban Services.

• Ecohispanic. Christian Manrique, General Director.

• FORETIC. Elena Ruiz, Coordinator of the Action Group in Circular Economy.

• Circular Economy Foundation. Anabel Rodríguez, Director.

• Totti Kónnölä, member of the “100 of COTEC” network. Director of IFI. Expert in innovation ecosystems.

Moderates and energizes: Plataforma Envase y Sociedad, Miguel Aballe.

The city for citizens will be the main axis on which all the themes will revolve, an approach that has always been the distinguishing feature of the Forum of the Cities of Madrid. For this reason, a part of the program will be devoted to discussing the so-called “NEW URBAN ECONOMIES”.

All the presentations, good practices and debates of the IFEMA 2018 Madrid Cities Forum will be included in a FREE DIGITAL BOOK, just like in its two previous editions, in order to disseminate information and knowledge about the sustainable, inclusive and green management of our cities.