Project Sectors – Insight Foresight Institute

Future Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on European Consumer Behaviour

A project was carried out by the Foresight on Demand consortium, including partners Fraunhofer ISI, ISINNOVA, AIT, FFRC, and Insight Foresight Institute. It presents the results of a foresight exercise on consumer policy toward 2030, focusing on anticipating challenges within the context of the twin transitions (green and digital) and examining both the short- and long-term impacts of the pandemic on consumer behaviour, consumption patterns, and European markets. The aim was to identify and assess future trends and disruptions that will shape consumer policy in this evolving landscape.

The final report, titled “Impact of the Pandemic on European Consumer Behavior,” combines trend analysis, scenario building, and expert input to offer strategic, forward-looking recommendations. Using a STEEPV analysis framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Values-based), the study identifies 29 key drivers of change. Among the most prominent are:

Accelerated digitalization: A rise in e-commerce, digital platforms, and new forms of intermediation.

Shifting risk perception: Increased focus on health, safety, and well-being.

Heightened sustainability awareness: Consumers are more conscious of the social and environmental impacts of their decisions.

Emergence of new inequalities: Digital divides and lack of tech skills have intensified vulnerabilities.

Transformations in employment and mobility: The rise of remote work, redefinition of urban space, and new forms of local leisure and consumption.

Four Future Scenarios for 2030

The report does not aim to predict the future but rather constructs four plausible scenarios to explore the implications of different trajectories:

1. United by a Resilient and Sustainable Society

A model based on equity, green innovation, and multilateral cooperation becomes dominant. Consumption decisions align with collective values, and strong data protection is in place.

2. Green Growth with Rising Inequality

Technological development advances but deepens social divides. Data-driven price personalization becomes standard, while geopolitical and digital tensions escalate.

3. Green Innovation with Inequality Mitigation

Europe achieves a balance between efficiency and fairness. Social innovation, citizen participation, and rural revitalization are promoted.

4. Inequality at the Edge

Marked by social fragmentation, climate emergency, and erosion of consumer rights. Consumption is mediated by dominant platforms and algorithms.

Seven Priorities for a Resilient, Future-Ready Consumer Policy

The findings outline a strategic action framework with seven key areas, aimed at strengthening the New Consumer Agenda:

Smart labeling: Clear, accessible, and comparable information on sustainability, product origin, and lifecycle.
Data spaces for consumption: Secure and ethical infrastructures for data sharing between consumers, businesses, and authorities.
Sustainability by design: Regulations that promote product durability, repairability, and reuse from the manufacturing stage.
Consumer participation: Encourage the co-creation of products and services with users and communities.
Personal data regulation: Clear rules on how personal data is collected, processed, and used in digital environments.
Digital consumer empowerment: Tools that allow users to manage their preferences, rights, and online exposure.
Agile and multi-level governance: Effective coordination among local, national, and European institutions, with the ability to adapt to evolving contexts.

Authors

European Commission: Directorate-General for Justice and Consumers. Simone Kimpeler, Kerstin Cuhls, Charlotte Freudenberg (Fraunhofer ISI), Giovanna Guiffrè, Giorgia Galvini, Andrea Ricci, Loredana Marmora (ISINNOVA), Susanne Giesecke, Dana Wasserbacher (AIT), Sirkka Heinonen, Mikkel Knudsen (FFRC), Totti Könnölä (IFI).

Acess to full report

Foresight on Demand: Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on European Consumer Behaviour - Final Report

Geopolitical & industrial decarbonisation scenarios to identify R&I opportunities for the EU

As part of ‘the Eye of Europe’ Horizon Europe Project, Insight Foresight Institute organised an in-person stakeholder workshop on ‘Geopolitical & industrial decarbonisation scenarios to identify R&I opportunities for the EU’ on 10-11 April 2025 in Madrid, Spain. The event consisted of debating around a primary issue on the EU’s agenda: how to navigate geopolitical issues to keep decarbonising the continent towards sustainable and competitive sectors.

The workshop gathered more than 30 experts specialised in different areas related to circular economy, decarbonisation, sustainability, innovation, geopolitics etc. The objective was to use foresight methods (scenarios and roadmaps) in order to plan different strategies to navigate industrial decarbonisation. For that matter, three different small groups were created:

Energy Security and Supply moderated by Attila Havas.
Critical Raw Materials moderated by Totti Könnölä.
Manufacturing in Hard-to-Abate Sectors moderated by Karl-Heinz Leitner.

Participants attended this two-day workshop which started with introductory presentations by experts from public institutions such as the European Commission or the Spanish Ministry of Industry. Once participants were put into context, the common scenario work began in the mentioned small groups. The second day, the debate was focused on roadmpaping for R&I needs and emerging areas. The findings and conclusions were gathered in the final plenary and will soon be published on a report.

The dynamic teamwork carried out by participants with such different backgrounds allowed to gather diverse outcomes from the exercise. The decarbonisation process of the European industry has already begun, and it is crucial to consider every factor in order to apply the adequate strategies. From the Insight Foresight Institute’s team we would like to thank all the participants that attended those two days to debate about the future of the decarbonisation process in Europe.

After the New Normal: Scenarios for Europe in the Post Covid-19 World

The team of Insight Foresight Institute developed this study alongside experts from Fraunhofer ISI and AIT. The study examined five alternative scenarios for Europe in 2040 emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic’s disruption, focusing on their implications for EU research and innovation policy. The aim was to analyze how the pandemic’s amplification of global uncertainties might reshape long-term R&I priorities, and to provide policymakers with strategic perspectives on potential post-crisis evolution paths.

Based on extensive literature review and expert workshops, the study outlines five scenarios reflecting divergent futures shaped by the pandemic’s long-term effects on research, innovation, and social resilience. Rather than predicting a single outcome, these scenarios serve as strategic narratives to stimulate policy reflection and guide future decisions, exploring a range of possibilities in economic recovery, political cohesion, and societal transformation.

The five scenarios include:

Long Recession – Europe faces sustained economic stagnation, rising nationalism, and shrinking public R&I investments.
Back to ‘Normal’ – Attempts to return to pre-pandemic normalcy led to institutional stagnation.
Techno-Feudal Europe – Technological power concentrates in private hands, weakening democratic oversight.
Circular trials and real-life errors scenario – Economic model based on sharing, leasing, reuse, repair, refurbish and recycling in an (almost) closed loop.
Green Utopia – A transformation towards equity and ecological sustainability through coordinated green transitions.

The authors outline the core methodology, including horizon scanning and scenario-building. It positions research and innovation (R&I) as central levers for navigating uncertainty and advancing EU objectives. Emphasizing the need for:

Control over technological development.
Resilience, adaptability and crisis preparedness for times of crises.
The key role of education.
EU level financing for R&I.
Regional disparities in R&I performance.
Defining future priorities in R&I policy.

The report concludes with a call to reimagine Europe’s future beyond recovery—to build a more inclusive, forward-looking, and resilient Union. It recognizes that Covid-19 was not merely a crisis, but a pivotal moment to reshape the trajectories of European integration, innovation, and sustainability.

Authors

European Commission. Dictorate-General for Research and Innovation – Kerstin Cuhls (coordination, Fraunhofer ISI), Aaron Rosa (Fraunhofer ISI), Matthias Weber (AIT), Susanne Giesecke (AIT), Dana Wasserbacher (AIT), Totti Könnölä (IFI).

Acess to full report

After the new normal: Scenarios for Europe in the post Covid-19 world. A Foresight on Demand Project.

ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation

The IFI team, contributed to the development of this project alongside a team formed by the members of Technopolis Group, Austrian Institute of Technologies. A roadmap on the area of industrial technology, focused on human-centric R&I is developed. The work was performed under the European Commission framework contract “Foresight on Demand” and was completed in May 2024.

Human centricity is one of the three pillars of Industry 5.0. This Roadmap shows how industrial innovation ecosystem stakeholders can take a leading role in achieving human-centric outcomes in technology development and adoption, such as improving workers’ safety and wellbeing, upskilling or learning. There are significant opportunities to capture the transformative potential of ground-breaking technologies like artificial intelligence and virtual worlds through more human-centric and user-driven design approaches. The roadmap recommends that policy makers support integrating human-centricity considerations in education and training, R&I funding and in company training and innovation strategies.

The study starts by explaining the basis of its research: Industry 5.0 and Human-centricity. Industry 5.0 represents a transformative vision of the industry, positioning it as a driver of sustainability, resilience, and human-centricity. This vision supports a paradigm shift toward industries that operate within planetary boundaries, leave no one behind, and actively contribute to well-being and planetary regeneration.

Human-centricity is one of the three pillars of Industry 5.0, aligning with the European Commission’s priorities for an Economy that Works for People, alongside initiatives for a Europe Fit for the Digital Age and the EU Green Deal. In other words, it is a framework that places human needs, characteristics and experiences at the centre of design, development and implementation of technological solutions. Historically, human-centricity in technology development has been approached through Human-Centred Design (HCD).

However, the adoption of human-centric approaches faces important challenges. Difficulties in technology design encompass the absence of practical guidelines and standards, the complexity arising from required high customisation, and the difficulty in adopting a multidisciplinary approach involving ergonomics, behavioural science, cognitive processes, and socio-cultural dimensions within the manufacturing workforce.

Adoption and implementation of human-centric approaches to technology need further evidence of a favourable return on investment and are faced with complications due to the multidisciplinary requirements in deployment, attracting a skilled workforce, ensuring harmonious integration with existing infrastructure, budget constraints and increased workloads during scale-up.

The roadmap outlines key dimensions for advancing human-centricity in Industry 5.0 taking the previous challenges into account:

Technologies and their potential: the roadmap identifies technologies that leverage human creativity and intelligent machines to create resource-efficient, user-centred manufacturing solutions.
Organizational environment: it focuses on processes, methods, and managerial practices that enhance human-centricity, such as human-centred design processes and workflow management.
R&I investments: highlights public and private sector investments in human-centric technologies and start-ups.
Framework conditions: examines societal, demographic, and governance drivers, as well as skills, competencies, and infrastructure needed to support human-centricity.

Authors

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Seán O’Reagain, Lura Roman, Doris Schröcker, Evgeni Evgeniev and Peter Dröl. With the collaboration of Orestas Strauka Carmen Moreno, Izabella Martins Grapengiesser, Krystel Montpetit, Viola Peter, Karl-Heinz Leitner, Huu-Quynh-Huong Nyuyen, Nico Pintar, Wolfram Rhomberg, Manfred Tscheligi, Setareh Zafari and Totti Könnölä . ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation – Foresight on demand (FoD), Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Acess to full report

ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation

Expectations and assumptions for the future in Horizon Europe

The CEO of IFI, Totti Könnölä conducted with Philine Warnke and Ralph Gutknecht, from the Fraunhofer ISI a study on “Expectations and assumptions for the future in the Work Programme 2021-2022 of Horizon Europe”. The study scanned the HE Work Programme 2021- 2022 for assumptions and expectations about the future and conducted a Delphi survey of experts on the likely time of realization of those expectations and assumptions. The analysis revealed three overlapping, but distinct types of challenges associated with assumptions and expectations that should be recognised in future work programmes: policy challenges, diversification challenges and reflexivity challenges.

When it comes to policy changes, some goals are seen as valuable but unrealistic due to limited R&I potential and political barriers. Future programs could focus on areas with favorable conditions for R&I, integrate social sciences and stakeholder dialogues, or align R&I with other policies like agriculture. However, success isn’t guaranteed as social, and policy changes are slow. Examples include sustainable agri-food systems, industrial and transport decarbonization, and personalized health.

The category of diversification challenges includes goals seen as controversial or unsolvable. Reframing problems and diversifying approaches, especially by incorporating societal change perspectives (e.g., human behavior, social innovation), may help. Integrating or connecting research teams could improve outcomes. Examples of this are circular products, sustainable energy, and digital agriculture.

About reflexivity challenges, it is known that in some cases, refining key concepts and fostering shared understanding among stakeholders (e.g., patients, CSOs) is needed. Examples of the study include “One Health” and “strategic autonomy.”

Challenges were categorized into near-term (now–2030), mid-term (2030–2050), long-term (2050–never), and inconclusive (divergent opinions). Experts’ comments were further analysed to see if the statements’ goals were shared or contested. The study highlights 27 statements offering key insights: some show near-term issues are almost resolved, suggesting more ambitious future programs; others with long-term or “never” timelines imply unrealistic goals needing adjustments; and contested statements point to the need for deliberative processes or alternative approaches. This study concludes with lessons for future work programmes and specific cluster findings, with annexes detailing original assumptions and survey data.

The study found that while most expectations in the Horizon Europe Work Programme 2021-2022 are broadly shared, many are controversial or risky due to three main factors:
a) Goals with long-term, uncertain outcomes needing justification for current relevance.
b) Goals already achieved or near completion, questioning Horizon Europe’s role.
c) Inherently controversial goals requiring consideration of diverse viewpoints.

Most expectations fit a mid-to-long-term horizon, aligning with Horizon Europe’s ambitions. However, three overarching challenges were identified:

Policy Challenges:
Some goals, though relevant, are unrealistic due to political barriers or limited R&I potential. Solutions include focusing on areas with favourable conditions, integrating social sciences and stakeholder dialogues, or aligning R&I with other policies like agriculture. Examples include sustainable agri-food systems, industrial decarbonization, and personalized health.
Diversification Challenges:
This group includes topics with disagreement on goals or deemed unsolvable. Reframing problems and integrating societal perspectives (e.g., human behaviour, social innovation) could help. Connecting research teams may also enhance effectiveness. Examples of this are circular products, sustainable energy, and agricultural digitalization.
Reflexivity Challenges:
Some topics require clearer conceptual understanding, suggesting the need for shared frameworks and integrating key users like patients or CSOs. For example, “One Health” and “strategic autonomy.”

Authors

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Warnke, P., Gutknecht, R. and Könnölä, T., Expectations and assumptions for the future in the work programme 2021-2022 of Horizon Europe – Foresight on demand (FoD), Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

Expectations and assumptions for the future in the Work Programme 2021-2022 of Horizon Europe