Transport and Infrastructure – Insight Foresight Institute

Foresight for Preparing the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe

The team of Insight Foresight Institute participated in this project of the Foresight on Demand consortium, alongside a variety of experts and institutions that collaborate with the European Commission. Given the length of the study, Inisght Foresight Institute collaborated specifically on Chapter 5 (participating) and Chapter 6 (leading).

The report delivered a foresight study to inform the Horizon Europe Strategic Plan (2025-2027) through early-stage strategic intelligence, featuring future scenarios, analyses of disruptive trends, and stakeholder engagement activities. The aim was to identify emerging issues, trends, and perspectives that could introduce novel elements to strategic planning processes, while capturing challenges, opportunities, and public proposals for Horizon Europe’s future orientation.

For instance, the study outlined six multi-level context scenarios that combine different global perspectives – from collaborative to hostile – with contrasting EU conditions (resilient vs vulnerable). These scenarios serve as possible “playing fields” for EU research and innovation policy.

Key Insights:

Eleven disruptive areas were analyzed, including Artificial General Intelligence, transhumanism, climate change, global governance, hydrogen economy, and new societal value shifts.

These were grouped into four clusters: global landscape, technology & society, society & nature, and social/value transformations.

Expert surveys and scenario-building revealed future R&I policy needs.

Strategic Implications:

EU leadership: Europe must strengthen its technological and industrial positioning while contributing to global commons and responsible governance.

Resilience: Policies must anticipate crises—whether environmental, health-related, social or geopolitical—through agile, science-based responses.

Reflexivity & ethics: Frontier topics (e.g., geoengineering, human enhancement, AI) require early and inclusive societal debate.

Nature-society balance: R&I must address not just technological goals but also redefine humanity’s relationship with ecosystems.

Open and adaptive instruments: EU research programmes need greater openness, flexibility, and rapid feedback mechanisms to remain effective under uncertainty.

Global partnerships: The EU should combine strategic alliances with global rule-setting in areas such as AI, climate, and sustainability.

This foresight effort offers not only a vision for Horizon Europe, but a foundation for a more resilient, inclusive and forward-looking R&I ecosystem in Europe—capable of addressing both today’s challenges and tomorrow’s unknowns.

More information

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Foresight on demand – “Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe” – Foresight, Weber, M.(editor), Wasserbacher, D.(editor) and Kastrinos, N.(editor), Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

Foresight on Demand: Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe

Geopolitical & industrial decarbonisation scenarios to identify R&I opportunities for the EU

As part of ‘the Eye of Europe’ Horizon Europe Project, Insight Foresight Institute organised an in-person stakeholder workshop on ‘Geopolitical & industrial decarbonisation scenarios to identify R&I opportunities for the EU’ on 10-11 April 2025 in Madrid, Spain. The event consisted of debating around a primary issue on the EU’s agenda: how to navigate geopolitical issues to keep decarbonising the continent towards sustainable and competitive sectors.

The workshop gathered more than 30 experts specialised in different areas related to circular economy, decarbonisation, sustainability, innovation, geopolitics etc. The objective was to use foresight methods (scenarios and roadmaps) in order to plan different strategies to navigate industrial decarbonisation. For that matter, three different small groups were created:

Energy Security and Supply moderated by Attila Havas.
Critical Raw Materials moderated by Totti Könnölä.
Manufacturing in Hard-to-Abate Sectors moderated by Karl-Heinz Leitner.

Participants attended this two-day workshop which started with introductory presentations by experts from public institutions such as the European Commission or the Spanish Ministry of Industry. Once participants were put into context, the common scenario work began in the mentioned small groups. The second day, the debate was focused on roadmpaping for R&I needs and emerging areas. The findings and conclusions were gathered in the final plenary and will soon be published on a report.

The dynamic teamwork carried out by participants with such different backgrounds allowed to gather diverse outcomes from the exercise. The decarbonisation process of the European industry has already begun, and it is crucial to consider every factor in order to apply the adequate strategies. From the Insight Foresight Institute’s team we would like to thank all the participants that attended those two days to debate about the future of the decarbonisation process in Europe.

Transformative governance of innovation ecosystems

The CEO of IFI, Totti Könnölä publishes with Aalto University professors in a leading research journal ‘Technological Forecasting and Social Change’ a paper on transformative governance of innovation ecosystems.

New lens for policy and management

The framework of transformative governance developed in the paper, offers a powerful new lens for policy and management contexts which are characterised by complexity and uncertainty, both within vertical policies (e.g. research, energy, mobility or health) as much as within more horizontal policies (e.g. entrepreneurship or innovation).

Apart from designing of specific policy measures, the framework can be harnessed for shaping the general conditions of transformative innovation policy and associated governance structures, for instance by overcoming bottlenecks related to both innovation and entrepreneurial ecosystems. Furthermore, it can be used for assessing and designing policy mixes to support the development of innovation ecosystems into desired directions. In fact, we look for new collaborations to apply this framework in policy/management analysis and the design of new measures.

Transformative innovation policy

The paper addresses transformative innovation policy, which has recently emerged at the intersection of innovation and socio-technical transition research. It has provided valuable heuristics to guide policy; but it has also led to the recognition of major challenges in the management of uncertainty and complexity.

Traditional policy responses to control markets have become a source of inertia and a point of vulnerability addressing challenges associated with digital platforms, financial crises and the covid-19 pandemic as well.

In this paper, we address these challenges by linking transformative innovation policy with research perspectives from (i) complex adaptive systems, (ii) ecosystems, and (iii) adaptive and participatory governance. Specifically, we develop a conceptual framework for transformative governance.

Transformative governance

Ecosystems tend to evolve towards excessive concentration of power and techno-institutional lock-ins, on the one hand, or the dissolution of the ecosystem to fragmented and chaotic markets, on the other. To address this challenge, we develop transformative governance.

Transformative governance seeks to improve the adaptiveness and resilience of the ecosystem and orchestrates socio-technical transformation based on the balanced presence of diversity, connectivity, polycentricity, redundancy and directionality.

In effect, the framework help design and assess policy measures which exhibit the desired five features in the three succession stages, thereby fostering more balanced ecosystem development.

Case study on emerging mobility ecosystem

We present an illustrative example by applying the framework to a Finnish policy reform in which the lack of balanced attention to the ecosystem features catalysed major shortcomings in an emerging innovation mobility ecosystem. Finally, we explore the implications for the design of individual policies and policy mixes that arise from the recognition of the complexity and the holistic policy impacts on the ecosystem and society at large.

The paper results from the international Platform Value Now project, funded by Finland’s Strategic Research Council focusing on understanding the fast-emerging platform ecosystems, their value creation dynamics and requirements of the supportive institutional environment.

This paper is available here to download free of charge. For more information contact Totti Könnölä.

Könnölä et al. Transformative governance of innovation ecosystems

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Towards smart circular economy; the role of digitalisation

The Digital Development and Society Forum of the Spain Digital Foundation supported by the Insight Foresight Institute (IFI) has prepared a dossier in Spanish entitled “Towards the Intelligent Circular Economy; the role of digitization” tries to contribute ideas proposing to take advantage of the potential of digitization to change the model of the current linear economy towards the new system of Circular Economy.

As indicated in the document, its objective is to explain the connection between digitization and the Circular Economy as well as to suggest actions that can accelerate the implementation of this new economic model. The series of specific objectives can be summarized:

Define the role of digitization on the road to the Circular Economy
Identify digital application areas to promote the Circular Economy
Suggest actions to digitize the economy towards circular models.

The dossier specifies some of the challenges to be faced in the search for this particular type of economy and identifies a series of barriers that must be taken into account, classified into three main groups:

Organizational and cultural (eg lack of talent or rejection of open innovation)
Legal and tax (eg confidentiality protection, tariff logic)
Technological (eg interoperability difficulties)

As an example of the capabilities of digitization to accelerate the transition to a Circular Economy, the main axes included in the Spanish Circular Economy Strategy are detailed; Spain Circular 2030 presenting three hypothetical cases applicable to some of them, specifically in the productive sectors of transport (urban eMobility), agri-food and tourism.

After the conclusions highlighting the fundamental role of digitization, the dossier ends by proposing lines of action to promote its role in the Circular Economy.

The Spain Digital Foundation publishes this dossier in support and collaboration towards the full implementation of the new Circular Economy system. This proposal acquires special importance at present as evidenced by the approval by the Council of Ministers of Spain, on June 2, 2020, of the aforementioned Spanish Circular Economy Strategy EEEC; Spain Circular 2030.

Download free the report (in Spanish):

Hacia la economía circular inteligente; el papel de la digitalización

Towards the smart and circular economy

CEO of Insight Foresight Institute, Totti Könnölä, writes in the Telos Magazine on the role of digitalization in circular economy. Digitalization can significantly reduce emission levels and the polluting impact of human activity on the environment.

The economic model that society has lived up to now is the linear one that follows the sequence: extract – manufacture – use – throw away and that requires large amounts of cheap and easily accessible energy and other resources, with evident negative environmental consequences. The consumption of these resources is reaching the limit of its physical capacity. Luckily companies are increasingly looking for win-win solutions providing simultaneously greater business competitiveness and a better environmental results.

An alternative that has more and more advocates is the so-called Circular Economy, based on the following three principles:

design to reduce waste and pollution;
keep equipment and materials in use longer ; and
regenerate natural systems.

Applying these three principles involves changing value chains and of business models, which makes it possible to transform the entire economy toward a new paradigm, a more sustainable system.

This concept is capturing interest from both companies and policy makers. In line with the ‘The New European Green Deal’, the European Commission adopts an EU industrial strategy to tackle the double challenge of green and digital transformation. The goal is to harness the potential of digital transformation, which is a key enabler to achieve the goals of the Green Deal. Also in Spain, the Government has elaborated the strategy to promote the transition to the Circular Economy. Including this article results from the debate organized by the Foundation Spain Digital indicating among other initiatives real and growing interest in circular economy.

More information

Download the article in Spanish (free)

Access to the full issue of the Telos including this article.