Insight Foresight Institute participated in the project “Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe in 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. The report examined the transformative impact of the green transition on the EU labour market, alongside digitalisation and automation, through a set of future scenarios for green technological leadership and socio-techncal transitions in Europe.
The work was part of the larger platform project named “European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe” for the European Commission, coordinated by Totti Könnölä, the CEO of Insight Foresight Institute. Four different scenarios were defined for the study:
- Scenario A – Green technology-intensive Europe, struggling to fill all the green jobs. The European Union has advanced in a green transition across society and has gained global leadership in green technologies, resulting from aligned efforts.
- Scenario B – Apocalypse soon, fighting skills mismatches in a degraded environment. After failed climate policy efforts, a sharp deterioration of the climate and the multiplication of extreme natural-related events, the environment is in a critical state in Europe and globally.
- Scenario C – Feeling the pain, a workface left behind in a non-green world. This scenario represents increasing environmental pressures from man-made climate change that have not been effectively addressed over the past decades.
- Scenario D – Green leapfrogging, old Europe surrounded by new green giants. In 2050, third countries and regions have leapfrogged leaving Europe behind. The world has seen geopolitical shifts, but also an improved environment.
Each of the four depicted futures stimulated further discussion on multiple implications for current R&I policy, and collectively gave rise to the following conclusions:
- There will be no green transition without a strong, vocational education and training (VET) skills base.
- The shared understanding of what green means is reconfigured over time.
- The talent base for green skills must be expanded.
- Green development paths are shaped by emerging technologies; emerging technologies should also be shaped by green skills.
Based on this work, INRS and other European experts were invited to participate in a foresight network focusing on green skills and jobs in Europe by 2050. The article “L’Avenir des Compétences et des Emplois Verts en Europe en 2050: Scénario et Implications Politiques; Conséquences pour la Prévention des Risques Professionnels’” presents a summary of the discussion.
Additional information
Mikkel Knudsen, Marjolein Caniëls, Peter Dickinson, Michel Hery, Heila Lotz-Sisitka and Totti Könnölä. “Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe in 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.
