Insight Foresight Institute participated in the Foresight on Demand consortium studying “Futures of Science for Policy in Europe: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. The study developed key trends shaping the future of science-for-policy ecosystems in the European Union, analyzing challenges and opportunities arising from the growing role of scientific advice in public decision-making. The work was part of the larger platform project named “European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe” for the European Commission, coordinated by Totti Könnölä, the CEO of Insight Foresight Institute.
The report explores how knowledge should be exchanged between actors and policy-makers to strengthen scientifically informed policies in Europe. Science is increasingly visible in public debates, and governments are more willing to mobilize diverse advice mechanisms. However, this creates tensions around the control of knowledge production, responsibility for decisions, and the integration of both expert and lay knowledge.
Five scenarios for 2030 illustrate alternative futures for science-for-policy ecosystems:
- Scenario A – Mission-oriented research and policy: Science and policy align around societal challenges, fostering co-creation and stakeholder collaboration, while raising questions about risks for traditional disciplines.
- Scenario B – Participatory science and policy ‘under construction’: Citizens, NGOs, and grassroots actors gain influence in shaping research and advice, challenging established institutions and broadening the notion of evidence.
- Scenario C – Data enthusiasm and AI dominance: Over-reliance on AI and multinational data providers risks transparency, autonomy, and critical reflection in scientific advice.
- Scenario D – Open science and policy support: Open science strengthens transparency and access to knowledge, but also highlights the need for protected spaces where unpopular yet rigorous opinions can be expressed.
- Scenario E – Policy-based evidence-making in industrial policy: Incumbent-driven strategies prioritize corporate interests, embedding advice mechanisms within government agencies but risking bias and reduced innovation diversity.
Across these scenarios, the study identifies key policy implications:
- Science-for-policy ecosystems must balance inclusiveness with quality, safeguarding resilience against populism and corporate capture.
- Deliberation and alignment of public policies which would enable the interaction betweem knowledge production and decision.
- A value-based approach is essential, recognizing that science is not neutral and should engage openly with ethical and societal debates.
This work highlights the dynamic relationship between science and democracy in Europe. Open, pluralistic, and future-oriented science-for-policy ecosystems can foster responsibility, accountability, and resilience in addressing societal challenges.
Additional information
Leena Sarvaranta, Albert-Bravo-Biosca, Bruna De Marchi, Rene Von Schomberg, Matthias Weber and Totti Könnölä. “Futures of Science for Policy in Europe: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. Publication Office of the European Union, 2024.
