Manufacturing – Insight Foresight Institute

Scenarios on Accelerating Transitions towards Regenerative Economy

Insight Foresight Institute’s CEO Totti Könnölä, alongside Carlo Sessa and Daniel Cassolà, led the Case Study of the project S&T&I 2050 conducted by the Foresight on Demand consortium for the European Commission DGRTD. The Case Study, called “Accelerating transitions to regenerative economy”, explored how to support the socio-economic transformation of production and consumption systems towards a new model of regenerative economy, ensuring prosperity and human well-being for all, and a healthy planet, through science, technology and innovation.

The study elaborates scenarios of possible evolution towards different forms of regenerative economy, using the Tree Horizon scenario framework. Additionally, each scenario is coupled with the different ecosystems’ stewardship perspectives:

Horizon 1, eco-efficient market: limit environmental degradation by means of new eco-efficient technologies. Coupled with protecting and restoring socio-ecological systems.

Horizon 2, circular economy: is presented as a possible pathway between Horizon 1 and Horizon 3. Coupled with co-shaping socio-ecological systems.

Horizon 3, symbiotic economy: conversion of the current economy into a radically different symbiotic economy model. Coupled with immersing and caring within hybrid collectives.

The study also considers the concept of regenerative economy as the next stage of evolution of capitalism. This concept assumes that economic vigour is a product of human and societal vitality, rooted in ecological health and the inclusive development of human capabilities. Thus:

Acts in ways that support the long-term health of the whole society.

Sees economic and financial health as inseparable from human, societal and environmental health.

Values richness and diversity, integrity and fairness.

Responds to the full gamut of human needs, adapting to circumstances and constantly evolving to more efficient levels of organization.

The conventional neoliberal and Keynesian economics use GDP to measure economic health, this is, a tool that only measures goods and services produced nationally. In contrast, the case study defends regenerative economics, which seek the development of healthy human networks embedded in healthy societies and the biosphere as the goal.

Further information

Totti Könnölä, Carlo Sessa and Daniel Cassolà “Case Study 4: Accelerating transitions to regenerative economy”. In European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Klaus Kubeczko, Project Coordination, Michael Bernstein, Dana Wasserbacher, Beatrix Wepner, Philine Warnke, Totti Könnölä, Liviu Andreescu, Bianca Dragomir, Radu Cristian Gheorghiu, Carlo Sessa, Daniel Cassolà, Žilvinas Martinaitis – “S&T&I for 2050 Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance- Accelerating Sustainability Transitions. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

S&T&I for 2050 Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance- Accelerating Sustainability Transitions.

European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe

Insight Foresight Institute coordinated this Foresight on Demand project for DG RTD. It aimed at providing timely foresight intelligence and forward-looking policy briefs to the European Commission for purposes of R&I policy on the following topics:

Futures of Civic Resilience
Futures of Green Skills and Jobs
Futures of innovation and IP regulation
Futures of Science for Policy in Europe
Futures of Using Nature in Rural and Marine Contexts in Europe

This project aimed at:

Providing timely foresight intelligence and forward-looking policy briefs to the European Commission for purposes of R&I policy on the mentioned topics.
Providing a hub for Europe’s R&I foresight community and a space in which foresight agencies and researchers can share knowledge and tools.
Networking EU-supported R&I projects with important foresight elements and promoting their results to policymakers, including via Horizon Futures Watch quarterly newsletters.
Promoting broad public engagement with foresight for R&I policy, including stakeholders as well as the public and covering all sections of society, from scientists and engineers to policy-makers, artists, intellectuals and engaged citizens.

Further information

“European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe”. In European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation.

Acess to project information

European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe

Futures4Europe Platform

Geopolitical & industrial decarbonisation scenarios to identify R&I opportunities for the EU

As part of ‘the Eye of Europe’ Horizon Europe Project, Insight Foresight Institute organised an in-person stakeholder workshop on ‘Geopolitical & industrial decarbonisation scenarios to identify R&I opportunities for the EU’ on 10-11 April 2025 in Madrid, Spain. The event consisted of debating around a primary issue on the EU’s agenda: how to navigate geopolitical issues to keep decarbonising the continent towards sustainable and competitive sectors.

The workshop gathered more than 30 experts specialised in different areas related to circular economy, decarbonisation, sustainability, innovation, geopolitics etc. The objective was to use foresight methods (scenarios and roadmaps) in order to plan different strategies to navigate industrial decarbonisation. For that matter, three different small groups were created:

Energy Security and Supply moderated by Attila Havas.
Critical Raw Materials moderated by Totti Könnölä.
Manufacturing in Hard-to-Abate Sectors moderated by Karl-Heinz Leitner.

Participants attended this two-day workshop which started with introductory presentations by experts from public institutions such as the European Commission or the Spanish Ministry of Industry. Once participants were put into context, the common scenario work began in the mentioned small groups. The second day, the debate was focused on roadmpaping for R&I needs and emerging areas. The findings and conclusions were gathered in the final plenary and will soon be published on a report.

The dynamic teamwork carried out by participants with such different backgrounds allowed to gather diverse outcomes from the exercise. The decarbonisation process of the European industry has already begun, and it is crucial to consider every factor in order to apply the adequate strategies. From the Insight Foresight Institute’s team we would like to thank all the participants that attended those two days to debate about the future of the decarbonisation process in Europe.

ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation

The IFI team, contributed to the development of this project alongside a team formed by the members of Technopolis Group, Austrian Institute of Technologies. A roadmap on the area of industrial technology, focused on human-centric R&I is developed. The work was performed under the European Commission framework contract “Foresight on Demand” and was completed in May 2024.

Human centricity is one of the three pillars of Industry 5.0. This Roadmap shows how industrial innovation ecosystem stakeholders can take a leading role in achieving human-centric outcomes in technology development and adoption, such as improving workers’ safety and wellbeing, upskilling or learning. There are significant opportunities to capture the transformative potential of ground-breaking technologies like artificial intelligence and virtual worlds through more human-centric and user-driven design approaches. The roadmap recommends that policy makers support integrating human-centricity considerations in education and training, R&I funding and in company training and innovation strategies.

The study starts by explaining the basis of its research: Industry 5.0 and Human-centricity. Industry 5.0 represents a transformative vision of the industry, positioning it as a driver of sustainability, resilience, and human-centricity. This vision supports a paradigm shift toward industries that operate within planetary boundaries, leave no one behind, and actively contribute to well-being and planetary regeneration.

Human-centricity is one of the three pillars of Industry 5.0, aligning with the European Commission’s priorities for an Economy that Works for People, alongside initiatives for a Europe Fit for the Digital Age and the EU Green Deal. In other words, it is a framework that places human needs, characteristics and experiences at the centre of design, development and implementation of technological solutions. Historically, human-centricity in technology development has been approached through Human-Centred Design (HCD).

However, the adoption of human-centric approaches faces important challenges. Difficulties in technology design encompass the absence of practical guidelines and standards, the complexity arising from required high customisation, and the difficulty in adopting a multidisciplinary approach involving ergonomics, behavioural science, cognitive processes, and socio-cultural dimensions within the manufacturing workforce.

Adoption and implementation of human-centric approaches to technology need further evidence of a favourable return on investment and are faced with complications due to the multidisciplinary requirements in deployment, attracting a skilled workforce, ensuring harmonious integration with existing infrastructure, budget constraints and increased workloads during scale-up.

The roadmap outlines key dimensions for advancing human-centricity in Industry 5.0 taking the previous challenges into account:

Technologies and their potential: the roadmap identifies technologies that leverage human creativity and intelligent machines to create resource-efficient, user-centred manufacturing solutions.
Organizational environment: it focuses on processes, methods, and managerial practices that enhance human-centricity, such as human-centred design processes and workflow management.
R&I investments: highlights public and private sector investments in human-centric technologies and start-ups.
Framework conditions: examines societal, demographic, and governance drivers, as well as skills, competencies, and infrastructure needed to support human-centricity.

Authors

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Seán O’Reagain, Lura Roman, Doris Schröcker, Evgeni Evgeniev and Peter Dröl. With the collaboration of Orestas Strauka Carmen Moreno, Izabella Martins Grapengiesser, Krystel Montpetit, Viola Peter, Karl-Heinz Leitner, Huu-Quynh-Huong Nyuyen, Nico Pintar, Wolfram Rhomberg, Manfred Tscheligi, Setareh Zafari and Totti Könnölä . ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation – Foresight on demand (FoD), Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Acess to full report

ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation

Towards the smart and circular economy

CEO of Insight Foresight Institute, Totti Könnölä, writes in the Telos Magazine on the role of digitalization in circular economy. Digitalization can significantly reduce emission levels and the polluting impact of human activity on the environment.

The economic model that society has lived up to now is the linear one that follows the sequence: extract – manufacture – use – throw away and that requires large amounts of cheap and easily accessible energy and other resources, with evident negative environmental consequences. The consumption of these resources is reaching the limit of its physical capacity. Luckily companies are increasingly looking for win-win solutions providing simultaneously greater business competitiveness and a better environmental results.

An alternative that has more and more advocates is the so-called Circular Economy, based on the following three principles:

design to reduce waste and pollution;
keep equipment and materials in use longer ; and
regenerate natural systems.

Applying these three principles involves changing value chains and of business models, which makes it possible to transform the entire economy toward a new paradigm, a more sustainable system.

This concept is capturing interest from both companies and policy makers. In line with the ‘The New European Green Deal’, the European Commission adopts an EU industrial strategy to tackle the double challenge of green and digital transformation. The goal is to harness the potential of digital transformation, which is a key enabler to achieve the goals of the Green Deal. Also in Spain, the Government has elaborated the strategy to promote the transition to the Circular Economy. Including this article results from the debate organized by the Foundation Spain Digital indicating among other initiatives real and growing interest in circular economy.

More information

Download the article in Spanish (free)

Access to the full issue of the Telos including this article.