Reports – Page 3 – Insight Foresight Institute

Scenarios on Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering

The CEO of Insight Foresight Institute, Totti Könnölä, led the team of experts, Albert Norström, Benjamin K. Sovacool, Duncan McLaren, and Sirkku Juhola to develop alternative scenarios for climate mitigation and adaptation. The work was part of the project “Foresight for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2024-2027)” conducted by the Foresight on Demand Consortium. The objective was to synthesise expert insights from the “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering” Deep Dive (June-October 2022), providing strategic intelligence to inform the European Commission’s DG RTD on potential research and innovation (R&I) pathways for climate challenges.

By exploring climate risks, research frontiers, and societal change drivers, the project developed four distinct scenarios for Europe’s climate future towards 2040. The scenarios offer strategic lenses to anticipate possible developments, challenges, and opportunities for European R&I policy. The scenario-building approach identified four core axes shaping future pathways:

Global governance: The degree of international coordination on climate policy.

Sustainable lifestyles: The depth of societal transformation towards low-carbon consumption and living.

Risk acceptance: Societal openness to experimentation with climate innovations, including emerging or controversial technologies.

Activism: The vibrancy and diversity of civic engagement—from formal institutions to disruptive grassroots movements.

The Four Climate Scenarios

1. Sustainable Transition

The EU establishes itself as a global leader in climate policy through robust governance, citizen assemblies, and large-scale adoption of nature-based solutions. Responsible R&I policy guides innovation, supporting transparent frameworks for carbon removal and exporting European climate innovations worldwide. Social engagement is institutionalized, and the precautionary principle is reinterpreted to enable transformative experimentation.

2. Coalition of Sustainable Communities

Here, Europe witnesses a profound decentralization of power, with resilient communities leading the shift away from consumption and ownership towards sharing, cooperation, and connection with nature. Social innovation is driven from the bottom up, and local food and energy systems become central to sustainability. Pluralism, grassroots democracy, and circular economies thrive.

3. Deepening Divisions

An escalation in populism and nationalism leads to fragmentation within Europe and a breakdown of international climate collaboration. Rising inequalities, polarized societies, and ineffective adaptation efforts amplify climate impacts and social unrest. Technology adoption is uneven, and public debate is dominated by misinformation and radical activism.

4. The Technological Fix

This scenario envisions a future where major technology firms and market forces drive climate responses. Europe bets on breakthrough technologies—such as geoengineering, advanced renewables, and large-scale hydrogen—but at the expense of social cohesion and civic engagement. Market mechanisms and tech innovation accelerate, but disparities widen and social innovation lags behind.

Strategic Recommendations for Horizon Europe:
Drawing on these scenarios and trends, the chapter recommends:

Enhancing Resilience: Policies should prioritize flexibility and science-based adaptation to climate uncertainties.

Fostering Inclusivity: R&I programmes must enable dialogue, ethical reflection, and societal engagement on climate solutions.

Integrating Approaches: Combining social innovation with emerging technologies is essential for a just and sustainable transition.

Strengthening Leadership: The EU can lead by example, promoting responsible climate governance and supporting transformative research.

By mapping alternative scenarios and emerging trends, Chapter 5 provides strategic intelligence for Horizon Europe’s 2nd Strategic Plan. The analysis underscores the importance of proactive, inclusive, and forward-looking R&I policies to accelerate climate mitigation and adaptation—securing Europe’s leadership in sustainability for the coming decades.

Further information

Totti Könnölä, Albert Norström, Benjamin K. Sovacool, Duncan McLaren, Sirkku Juhola. “Climate Change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering”, Chapter 5, In European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Foresight on demand – “Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe.”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

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Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe – Case Study 2: Climate Change, Research and Innovation

Foresight for Preparing the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe

The team of Insight Foresight Institute participated in this project of the Foresight on Demand consortium, alongside a variety of experts and institutions that collaborate with the European Commission. Given the length of the study, Inisght Foresight Institute collaborated specifically on Chapter 5 (participating) and Chapter 6 (leading).

The report delivered a foresight study to inform the Horizon Europe Strategic Plan (2025-2027) through early-stage strategic intelligence, featuring future scenarios, analyses of disruptive trends, and stakeholder engagement activities. The aim was to identify emerging issues, trends, and perspectives that could introduce novel elements to strategic planning processes, while capturing challenges, opportunities, and public proposals for Horizon Europe’s future orientation.

For instance, the study outlined six multi-level context scenarios that combine different global perspectives – from collaborative to hostile – with contrasting EU conditions (resilient vs vulnerable). These scenarios serve as possible “playing fields” for EU research and innovation policy.

Key Insights:

Eleven disruptive areas were analyzed, including Artificial General Intelligence, transhumanism, climate change, global governance, hydrogen economy, and new societal value shifts.

These were grouped into four clusters: global landscape, technology & society, society & nature, and social/value transformations.

Expert surveys and scenario-building revealed future R&I policy needs.

Strategic Implications:

EU leadership: Europe must strengthen its technological and industrial positioning while contributing to global commons and responsible governance.

Resilience: Policies must anticipate crises—whether environmental, health-related, social or geopolitical—through agile, science-based responses.

Reflexivity & ethics: Frontier topics (e.g., geoengineering, human enhancement, AI) require early and inclusive societal debate.

Nature-society balance: R&I must address not just technological goals but also redefine humanity’s relationship with ecosystems.

Open and adaptive instruments: EU research programmes need greater openness, flexibility, and rapid feedback mechanisms to remain effective under uncertainty.

Global partnerships: The EU should combine strategic alliances with global rule-setting in areas such as AI, climate, and sustainability.

This foresight effort offers not only a vision for Horizon Europe, but a foundation for a more resilient, inclusive and forward-looking R&I ecosystem in Europe—capable of addressing both today’s challenges and tomorrow’s unknowns.

More information

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Foresight on demand – “Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe” – Foresight, Weber, M.(editor), Wasserbacher, D.(editor) and Kastrinos, N.(editor), Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

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Foresight on Demand: Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe

Future Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on European Consumer Behaviour

A project was carried out by the Foresight on Demand consortium, including partners Fraunhofer ISI, ISINNOVA, AIT, FFRC, and Insight Foresight Institute. It presents the results of a foresight exercise on consumer policy toward 2030, focusing on anticipating challenges within the context of the twin transitions (green and digital) and examining both the short- and long-term impacts of the pandemic on consumer behaviour, consumption patterns, and European markets. The aim was to identify and assess future trends and disruptions that will shape consumer policy in this evolving landscape.

The final report, titled “Impact of the Pandemic on European Consumer Behavior,” combines trend analysis, scenario building, and expert input to offer strategic, forward-looking recommendations. Using a STEEPV analysis framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Values-based), the study identifies 29 key drivers of change. Among the most prominent are:

Accelerated digitalization: A rise in e-commerce, digital platforms, and new forms of intermediation.

Shifting risk perception: Increased focus on health, safety, and well-being.

Heightened sustainability awareness: Consumers are more conscious of the social and environmental impacts of their decisions.

Emergence of new inequalities: Digital divides and lack of tech skills have intensified vulnerabilities.

Transformations in employment and mobility: The rise of remote work, redefinition of urban space, and new forms of local leisure and consumption.

Four Future Scenarios for 2030

The report does not aim to predict the future but rather constructs four plausible scenarios to explore the implications of different trajectories:

1. United by a Resilient and Sustainable Society

A model based on equity, green innovation, and multilateral cooperation becomes dominant. Consumption decisions align with collective values, and strong data protection is in place.

2. Green Growth with Rising Inequality

Technological development advances but deepens social divides. Data-driven price personalization becomes standard, while geopolitical and digital tensions escalate.

3. Green Innovation with Inequality Mitigation

Europe achieves a balance between efficiency and fairness. Social innovation, citizen participation, and rural revitalization are promoted.

4. Inequality at the Edge

Marked by social fragmentation, climate emergency, and erosion of consumer rights. Consumption is mediated by dominant platforms and algorithms.

Seven Priorities for a Resilient, Future-Ready Consumer Policy

The findings outline a strategic action framework with seven key areas, aimed at strengthening the New Consumer Agenda:

Smart labeling: Clear, accessible, and comparable information on sustainability, product origin, and lifecycle.
Data spaces for consumption: Secure and ethical infrastructures for data sharing between consumers, businesses, and authorities.
Sustainability by design: Regulations that promote product durability, repairability, and reuse from the manufacturing stage.
Consumer participation: Encourage the co-creation of products and services with users and communities.
Personal data regulation: Clear rules on how personal data is collected, processed, and used in digital environments.
Digital consumer empowerment: Tools that allow users to manage their preferences, rights, and online exposure.
Agile and multi-level governance: Effective coordination among local, national, and European institutions, with the ability to adapt to evolving contexts.

Authors

European Commission: Directorate-General for Justice and Consumers. Simone Kimpeler, Kerstin Cuhls, Charlotte Freudenberg (Fraunhofer ISI), Giovanna Guiffrè, Giorgia Galvini, Andrea Ricci, Loredana Marmora (ISINNOVA), Susanne Giesecke, Dana Wasserbacher (AIT), Sirkka Heinonen, Mikkel Knudsen (FFRC), Totti Könnölä (IFI).

Acess to full report

Foresight on Demand: Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on European Consumer Behaviour – Final Report

After the New Normal: Scenarios for Europe in the Post Covid-19 World

The team of Insight Foresight Institute developed this study alongside experts from Fraunhofer ISI and AIT. The study examined five alternative scenarios for Europe in 2040 emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic’s disruption, focusing on their implications for EU research and innovation policy. The aim was to analyze how the pandemic’s amplification of global uncertainties might reshape long-term R&I priorities, and to provide policymakers with strategic perspectives on potential post-crisis evolution paths.

Based on extensive literature review and expert workshops, the study outlines five scenarios reflecting divergent futures shaped by the pandemic’s long-term effects on research, innovation, and social resilience. Rather than predicting a single outcome, these scenarios serve as strategic narratives to stimulate policy reflection and guide future decisions, exploring a range of possibilities in economic recovery, political cohesion, and societal transformation.

The five scenarios include:

Long Recession – Europe faces sustained economic stagnation, rising nationalism, and shrinking public R&I investments.
Back to ‘Normal’ – Attempts to return to pre-pandemic normalcy led to institutional stagnation.
Techno-Feudal Europe – Technological power concentrates in private hands, weakening democratic oversight.
Circular trials and real-life errors scenario – Economic model based on sharing, leasing, reuse, repair, refurbish and recycling in an (almost) closed loop.
Green Utopia – A transformation towards equity and ecological sustainability through coordinated green transitions.

The authors outline the core methodology, including horizon scanning and scenario-building. It positions research and innovation (R&I) as central levers for navigating uncertainty and advancing EU objectives. Emphasizing the need for:

Control over technological development.
Resilience, adaptability and crisis preparedness for times of crises.
The key role of education.
EU level financing for R&I.
Regional disparities in R&I performance.
Defining future priorities in R&I policy.

The report concludes with a call to reimagine Europe’s future beyond recovery—to build a more inclusive, forward-looking, and resilient Union. It recognizes that Covid-19 was not merely a crisis, but a pivotal moment to reshape the trajectories of European integration, innovation, and sustainability.

Authors

European Commission. Dictorate-General for Research and Innovation – Kerstin Cuhls (coordination, Fraunhofer ISI), Aaron Rosa (Fraunhofer ISI), Matthias Weber (AIT), Susanne Giesecke (AIT), Dana Wasserbacher (AIT), Totti Könnölä (IFI).

Acess to full report

After the new normal: Scenarios for Europe in the post Covid-19 world. A Foresight on Demand Project.

S&T&I FOR 2050: Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transition

IFI’s team has developed this study alongside experts from AIT, Fraunhofer ISI, IP, ISINNOVA and Visionary Analytics. The present report shows the results of a study on S&T&I for 2050: science, technology and innovation for ecosystem performance – accelerating sustainability transitions. The aim was to identify, map and assess future scientific and technological developments that can radically improve or threaten ecosystem performance. The work was performed under the coordination of the Directorate-General for Research and Innovation of the European Commission. The manuscript was completed in May 2023.

Based on literature review, the project team developed three perspectives on future relations between humans and nature and humans’ role in the flourishing of planetary ecosystems. Drawing in addition on a two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey on the most dynamic scientific and technological developments, six cased studies on core sustainability issues explored the three perspectives. Reflections on implications for R&I policies in the context of the European Green Deal conclude each case study.

Chapter 2 scopes and deliberates an appropriate notion of ecosystem performance, functionally equivalent to “human performance” in relation to science, technology and innovation, taking into consideration socio-economic aspects. Based on literature review, three perspectives were identified that then built the basis of the study:

Protecting & Restoring. The notion of the ecosystem lays on distinctive nature sphere interacting with the human sphere. What it is proposed is to manage the impact of human activities to reach a desired target.
Co-shaping socio-ecological systems. The ecosystem is based on complex adaptative socio-ecological systems with no clear boundaries. It is proposed to move specific socio- ecological systems towards more beneficial dynamics.
Immersing & Caring with hybrid collectives. The notion of the ecosystem is based on pluriverse of hybrid entities with agency emerging out of relations to each other. The attitude towards its performance should be of negotiation with other inhabitants of critical zones to allow all to flourish on their own terms.

Chapter 3 maps strong and emerging trends in science, technology and innovation in relation to ecosystem performance in a way that is meaningful for S&T&I policy and allows to discuss the possible consequences for what and how to research and innovate with a wide range of stakeholders in order to contribute to the Green Deal and related EU policies and to raise awareness of changes in human health related to ecosystem changes. To identify future scientific and technological developments that can radically improve ecosystem performance, the study consulted the most cited researchers in a two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey.

Finally, Chapter 4 provides case studies with scenarios in selected fields to illustrate the new thinking and builds narratives on different lines of R&I development that could inform programming and implementation of Horizon, Europe and help to evaluate projects and policy decisions. They explore different scenarios related to the different perspectives on, and understandings of society-nature interactions, their pre-conditions, and implications. The following are the evaluated cases:

Law for Nature
Land Use Futures
Soil to Soul.
Accelerating Transitions to Regenerative Economy.
Ecosystems and Micro-and Nano Cosmos.
Data as Representation.

There has been a shift in the expectations of development in S&T&I since the turn of the centuries. Now, societal challenges have shifted towards global threats for human health and planetary health. This shift has made clear the urgency and the need to a broader perspective on how to accelerate transitions and how to keep on track to reach climate-neutrality by 2050. The authors conclude by stating that there is a need to (re-)consider the relation between society and nature in further developing the STI policy strategy.

Authors

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation. Klaus Kubeczko, Project Coordination, Michael Bernstein, Dana Wasserbacher, Beatrix Wepner, Philine Warnke, Totti Könnölä, Liviu Andreescu, Bianca Dragomir, Radu Cristian Gheorghiu, Carlo Sessa, Daniel Cassolà, Žilvinas Martinaitis – S&T&I FOR 2050: Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transition.

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S&T&I FOR 2050: Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transition.