A project was carried out by the Foresight on Demand consortium, including partners Fraunhofer ISI, ISINNOVA, AIT, FFRC, and Insight Foresight Institute. It presents the results of a foresight exercise on consumer policy toward 2030, focusing on anticipating challenges within the context of the twin transitions (green and digital) and examining both the short- and long-term impacts of the pandemic on consumer behaviour, consumption patterns, and European markets. The aim was to identify and assess future trends and disruptions that will shape consumer policy in this evolving landscape.
The final report, titled “Impact of the Pandemic on European Consumer Behavior,” combines trend analysis, scenario building, and expert input to offer strategic, forward-looking recommendations. Using a STEEPV analysis framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Values-based), the study identifies 29 key drivers of change. Among the most prominent are:
- Accelerated digitalization: A rise in e-commerce, digital platforms, and new forms of intermediation.
- Shifting risk perception: Increased focus on health, safety, and well-being.
- Heightened sustainability awareness: Consumers are more conscious of the social and environmental impacts of their decisions.
- Emergence of new inequalities: Digital divides and lack of tech skills have intensified vulnerabilities.
- Transformations in employment and mobility: The rise of remote work, redefinition of urban space, and new forms of local leisure and consumption.
Four Future Scenarios for 2030
The report does not aim to predict the future but rather constructs four plausible scenarios to explore the implications of different trajectories:
1. United by a Resilient and Sustainable Society
A model based on equity, green innovation, and multilateral cooperation becomes dominant. Consumption decisions align with collective values, and strong data protection is in place.
2. Green Growth with Rising Inequality
Technological development advances but deepens social divides. Data-driven price personalization becomes standard, while geopolitical and digital tensions escalate.
3. Green Innovation with Inequality Mitigation
Europe achieves a balance between efficiency and fairness. Social innovation, citizen participation, and rural revitalization are promoted.
4. Inequality at the Edge
Marked by social fragmentation, climate emergency, and erosion of consumer rights. Consumption is mediated by dominant platforms and algorithms.
Seven Priorities for a Resilient, Future-Ready Consumer Policy
The findings outline a strategic action framework with seven key areas, aimed at strengthening the New Consumer Agenda:
- Smart labeling: Clear, accessible, and comparable information on sustainability, product origin, and lifecycle.
- Data spaces for consumption: Secure and ethical infrastructures for data sharing between consumers, businesses, and authorities.
- Sustainability by design: Regulations that promote product durability, repairability, and reuse from the manufacturing stage.
- Consumer participation: Encourage the co-creation of products and services with users and communities.
- Personal data regulation: Clear rules on how personal data is collected, processed, and used in digital environments.
- Digital consumer empowerment: Tools that allow users to manage their preferences, rights, and online exposure.
- Agile and multi-level governance: Effective coordination among local, national, and European institutions, with the ability to adapt to evolving contexts.
Authors
European Commission: Directorate-General for Justice and Consumers. Simone Kimpeler, Kerstin Cuhls, Charlotte Freudenberg (Fraunhofer ISI), Giovanna Guiffrè, Giorgia Galvini, Andrea Ricci, Loredana Marmora (ISINNOVA), Susanne Giesecke, Dana Wasserbacher (AIT), Sirkka Heinonen, Mikkel Knudsen (FFRC), Totti Könnölä (IFI).
