The CEO of Insight Foresight Institute, Totti Könnölä, led the team of experts, Albert Norström, Benjamin K. Sovacool, Duncan McLaren, and Sirkku Juhola to develop alternative scenarios for climate mitigation and adaptation. The work was part of the project “Foresight for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2024-2027)” conducted by the Foresight on Demand Consortium. The objective was to synthesise expert insights from the “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering” Deep Dive (June-October 2022), providing strategic intelligence to inform the European Commission’s DG RTD on potential research and innovation (R&I) pathways for climate challenges.
By exploring climate risks, research frontiers, and societal change drivers, the project developed four distinct scenarios for Europe’s climate future towards 2040. The scenarios offer strategic lenses to anticipate possible developments, challenges, and opportunities for European R&I policy. The scenario-building approach identified four core axes shaping future pathways:
- Global governance: The degree of international coordination on climate policy.
- Sustainable lifestyles: The depth of societal transformation towards low-carbon consumption and living.
- Risk acceptance: Societal openness to experimentation with climate innovations, including emerging or controversial technologies.
- Activism: The vibrancy and diversity of civic engagement—from formal institutions to disruptive grassroots movements.
The Four Climate Scenarios
1. Sustainable Transition
The EU establishes itself as a global leader in climate policy through robust governance, citizen assemblies, and large-scale adoption of nature-based solutions. Responsible R&I policy guides innovation, supporting transparent frameworks for carbon removal and exporting European climate innovations worldwide. Social engagement is institutionalized, and the precautionary principle is reinterpreted to enable transformative experimentation.
2. Coalition of Sustainable Communities
Here, Europe witnesses a profound decentralization of power, with resilient communities leading the shift away from consumption and ownership towards sharing, cooperation, and connection with nature. Social innovation is driven from the bottom up, and local food and energy systems become central to sustainability. Pluralism, grassroots democracy, and circular economies thrive.
3. Deepening Divisions
An escalation in populism and nationalism leads to fragmentation within Europe and a breakdown of international climate collaboration. Rising inequalities, polarized societies, and ineffective adaptation efforts amplify climate impacts and social unrest. Technology adoption is uneven, and public debate is dominated by misinformation and radical activism.
4. The Technological Fix
This scenario envisions a future where major technology firms and market forces drive climate responses. Europe bets on breakthrough technologies—such as geoengineering, advanced renewables, and large-scale hydrogen—but at the expense of social cohesion and civic engagement. Market mechanisms and tech innovation accelerate, but disparities widen and social innovation lags behind.
Strategic Recommendations for Horizon Europe:
Drawing on these scenarios and trends, the chapter recommends:
- Enhancing Resilience: Policies should prioritize flexibility and science-based adaptation to climate uncertainties.
- Fostering Inclusivity: R&I programmes must enable dialogue, ethical reflection, and societal engagement on climate solutions.
- Integrating Approaches: Combining social innovation with emerging technologies is essential for a just and sustainable transition.
- Strengthening Leadership: The EU can lead by example, promoting responsible climate governance and supporting transformative research.
By mapping alternative scenarios and emerging trends, Chapter 5 provides strategic intelligence for Horizon Europe’s 2nd Strategic Plan. The analysis underscores the importance of proactive, inclusive, and forward-looking R&I policies to accelerate climate mitigation and adaptation—securing Europe’s leadership in sustainability for the coming decades.
Further information
Totti Könnölä, Albert Norström, Benjamin K. Sovacool, Duncan McLaren, Sirkku Juhola. “Climate Change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering”, Chapter 5, In European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Foresight on demand – “Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe.”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.
