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S&T&I FOR 2050: Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transition

IFI’s team has developed this study alongside experts from AIT, Fraunhofer ISI, IP, ISINNOVA and Visionary Analytics. The present report shows the results of a study on S&T&I for 2050: science, technology and innovation for ecosystem performance – accelerating sustainability transitions. The aim was to identify, map and assess future scientific and technological developments that can radically improve or threaten ecosystem performance. The work was performed under the coordination of the Directorate-General for Research and Innovation of the European Commission. The manuscript was completed in May 2023.

STI photo

Based on literature review, the project team developed three perspectives on future relations between humans and nature and humans’ role in the flourishing of planetary ecosystems. Drawing in addition on a two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey on the most dynamic scientific and technological developments, six cased studies on core sustainability issues explored the three perspectives. Reflections on implications for R&I policies in the context of the European Green Deal conclude each case study.

Chapter 2 scopes and deliberates an appropriate notion of ecosystem performance, functionally equivalent to “human performance” in relation to science, technology and innovation, taking into consideration socio-economic aspects. Based on literature review, three perspectives were identified that then built the basis of the study:

  • Protecting & Restoring. The notion of the ecosystem lays on distinctive nature sphere interacting with the human sphere. What it is proposed is to manage the impact of human activities to reach a desired target.
  • Co-shaping socio-ecological systems. The ecosystem is based on complex adaptative socio-ecological systems with no clear boundaries. It is proposed to move specific socio- ecological systems towards more beneficial dynamics.
  • Immersing & Caring with hybrid collectives. The notion of the ecosystem is based on pluriverse of hybrid entities with agency emerging out of relations to each other. The attitude towards its performance should be of negotiation with other inhabitants of critical zones to allow all to flourish on their own terms.
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Chapter 3 maps strong and emerging trends in science, technology and innovation in relation to ecosystem performance in a way that is meaningful for S&T&I policy and allows to discuss the possible consequences for what and how to research and innovate with a wide range of stakeholders in order to contribute to the Green Deal and related EU policies and to raise awareness of changes in human health related to ecosystem changes. To identify future scientific and technological developments that can radically improve ecosystem performance, the study consulted the most cited researchers in a two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey.

Finally, Chapter 4 provides case studies with scenarios in selected fields to illustrate the new thinking and builds narratives on different lines of R&I development that could inform programming and implementation of Horizon, Europe and help to evaluate projects and policy decisions. They explore different scenarios related to the different perspectives on, and understandings of society-nature interactions, their pre-conditions, and implications. The following are the evaluated cases:

  • Law for Nature
  • Land Use Futures
  • Soil to Soul.
  • Accelerating Transitions to Regenerative Economy.
  • Ecosystems and Micro-and Nano Cosmos.
  • Data as Representation.

There has been a shift in the expectations of development in S&T&I since the turn of the centuries. Now, societal challenges have shifted towards global threats for human health and planetary health. This shift has made clear the urgency and the need to a broader perspective on how to accelerate transitions and how to keep on track to reach climate-neutrality by 2050. The authors conclude by stating that there is a need to (re-)consider the relation between society and nature in further developing the STI policy strategy.

Authors

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation. Klaus Kubeczko, Project Coordination, Michael Bernstein, Dana Wasserbacher, Beatrix Wepner, Philine Warnke, Totti Könnölä, Liviu Andreescu, Bianca Dragomir, Radu Cristian Gheorghiu, Carlo Sessa, Daniel Cassolà, Žilvinas Martinaitis – S&T&I FOR 2050: Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transition.

Acess to full report
S&T&I FOR 2050: Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transition.

ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation

The IFI team, contributed to the development of this project alongside a team formed by the members of Technopolis Group, Austrian Institute of Technologies. A roadmap on the area of industrial technology, focused on human-centric R&I is developed. The work was performed under the European Commission framework contract “Foresight on Demand” and was completed in May 2024.

ERA photo

Human centricity is one of the three pillars of Industry 5.0. This Roadmap shows how industrial innovation ecosystem stakeholders can take a leading role in achieving human-centric outcomes in technology development and adoption, such as improving workers’ safety and wellbeing, upskilling or learning. There are significant opportunities to capture the transformative potential of ground-breaking technologies like artificial intelligence and virtual worlds through more human-centric and user-driven design approaches. The roadmap recommends that policy makers support integrating human-centricity considerations in education and training, R&I funding and in company training and innovation strategies.

The study starts by explaining the basis of its research: Industry 5.0 and Human-centricity. Industry 5.0 represents a transformative vision of the industry, positioning it as a driver of sustainability, resilience, and human-centricity. This vision supports a paradigm shift toward industries that operate within planetary boundaries, leave no one behind, and actively contribute to well-being and planetary regeneration. 

Human-centricity is one of the three pillars of Industry 5.0, aligning with the European Commission’s priorities for an Economy that Works for People, alongside initiatives for a Europe Fit for the Digital Age and the EU Green Deal. In other words, it is a framework that places human needs, characteristics and experiences at the centre of design, development and implementation of technological solutions. Historically, human-centricity in technology development has been approached through Human-Centred Design (HCD).

However, the adoption of human-centric approaches faces important challenges. Difficulties in technology design encompass the absence of practical guidelines and standards, the complexity arising from required high customisation, and the difficulty in adopting a multidisciplinary approach involving ergonomics, behavioural science, cognitive processes, and socio-cultural dimensions within the manufacturing workforce.

Adoption and implementation of human-centric approaches to technology need further evidence of a favourable return on investment and are faced with complications due to the multidisciplinary requirements in deployment, attracting a skilled workforce, ensuring harmonious integration with existing infrastructure, budget constraints and increased workloads during scale-up.

The roadmap outlines key dimensions for advancing human-centricity in Industry 5.0 taking the previous challenges into account: 

  1. Technologies and their potential: the roadmap identifies technologies that leverage human creativity and intelligent machines to create resource-efficient, user-centred manufacturing solutions.
  2. Organizational environment: it focuses on processes, methods, and managerial practices that enhance human-centricity, such as human-centred design processes and workflow management.
  3. R&I investments: highlights public and private sector investments in human-centric technologies and start-ups.
  4. Framework conditions: examines societal, demographic, and governance drivers, as well as skills, competencies, and infrastructure needed to support human-centricity.

Authors

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Seán O’Reagain, Lura Roman, Doris Schröcker, Evgeni Evgeniev and Peter Dröl. With the collaboration of Orestas Strauka Carmen Moreno, Izabella Martins Grapengiesser, Krystel Montpetit, Viola Peter, Karl-Heinz Leitner, Huu-Quynh-Huong Nyuyen, Nico Pintar, Wolfram Rhomberg, Manfred Tscheligi, Setareh Zafari and Totti Könnölä . ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation – Foresight on demand (FoD), Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Acess to full report
ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation

Expectations and assumptions for the future in Horizon Europe

The CEO of IFI, Totti Könnölä  conducted with Philine Warnke and Ralph Gutknecht, from the Fraunhofer ISI a study on “Expectations and assumptions for the future in the Work Programme 2021-2022 of Horizon Europe”. The study scanned the HE Work Programme 2021- 2022 for assumptions and expectations about the future and conducted a Delphi survey of experts on the likely time of realization of those expectations and assumptions. The analysis revealed three overlapping, but distinct types of challenges associated with assumptions and expectations that should be recognised in future work programmes: policy challenges, diversification challenges and reflexivity challenges.

Expectations and assumptions photo

When it comes to policy changes, some goals are seen as valuable but unrealistic due to limited R&I potential and political barriers. Future programs could focus on areas with favorable conditions for R&I, integrate social sciences and stakeholder dialogues, or align R&I with other policies like agriculture. However, success isn’t guaranteed as social, and policy changes are slow. Examples include sustainable agri-food systems, industrial and transport decarbonization, and personalized health.

The category of diversification challenges includes goals seen as controversial or unsolvable. Reframing problems and diversifying approaches, especially by incorporating societal change perspectives (e.g., human behavior, social innovation), may help. Integrating or connecting research teams could improve outcomes. Examples of this are circular products, sustainable energy, and digital agriculture.

About reflexivity challenges, it is known that in some cases, refining key concepts and fostering shared understanding among stakeholders (e.g., patients, CSOs) is needed. Examples of the study include “One Health” and “strategic autonomy.”

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Challenges were categorized into near-term (now–2030), mid-term (2030–2050), long-term (2050–never), and inconclusive (divergent opinions). Experts’ comments were further analysed to see if the statements’ goals were shared or contested. The study highlights 27 statements offering key insights: some show near-term issues are almost resolved, suggesting more ambitious future programs; others with long-term or “never” timelines imply unrealistic goals needing adjustments; and contested statements point to the need for deliberative processes or alternative approaches. This study concludes with lessons for future work programmes and specific cluster findings, with annexes detailing original assumptions and survey data.

The study found that while most expectations in the Horizon Europe Work Programme 2021-2022 are broadly shared, many are controversial or risky due to three main factors:
a) Goals with long-term, uncertain outcomes needing justification for current relevance.
b) Goals already achieved or near completion, questioning Horizon Europe’s role.
c) Inherently controversial goals requiring consideration of diverse viewpoints.

Most expectations fit a mid-to-long-term horizon, aligning with Horizon Europe’s ambitions. However, three overarching challenges were identified:

  1. Policy Challenges:      
    Some goals, though relevant, are unrealistic due to political barriers or limited R&I potential. Solutions include focusing on areas with favourable conditions, integrating social sciences and stakeholder dialogues, or aligning R&I with other policies like agriculture. Examples include sustainable agri-food systems, industrial decarbonization, and personalized health.
  2. Diversification Challenges:    
    This group includes topics with disagreement on goals or deemed unsolvable. Reframing problems and integrating societal perspectives (e.g., human behaviour, social innovation) could help. Connecting research teams may also enhance effectiveness. Examples of this are circular products, sustainable energy, and agricultural digitalization.
  3. Reflexivity Challenges:            
    Some topics require clearer conceptual understanding, suggesting the need for shared frameworks and integrating key users like patients or CSOs. For example, “One Health” and “strategic autonomy.”

Authors

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Warnke, P., Gutknecht, R. and Könnölä, T., Expectations and assumptions for the future in the work programme 2021-2022 of Horizon Europe – Foresight on demand (FoD), Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report
Expectations and assumptions for the future in the Work Programme 2021-2022 of Horizon Europe

International analysis on mission-oriented instruments

At the Insight Foresight Institute, we have recently conducted a study for ENISA – Empresa Nacional de Innovacion, S.A. on this subject focusing on initiatives launched by public sector entities. Our mapping points to initiatives that explicitly address mission orientation and ecosystem-based approaches to a greater or lesser extent. Our work helps to understand how mission-oriented innovation initiatives operate and everything that actually happens, from the pre-planning stages to the moment they are launched, and we start to see short- and long-term results, going through all the necessary economic, political and social organization and management to make each initiative happen.

International analysis on mission-oriented instruments

 

Today there is a growing global concern about economic, social and environmental issues, and therefore, different countries are trying to be actors of change and close the gap between just creating knowledge and actually taking action. Indeed, a series of decisive policy measures and efforts are needed to ensure that the innovation policies of the next generations are up to the challenges we are facing today. Focusing on mission orientation is a new challenge, but it is also a great opportunity. An opportunity motivated by the ambition to explore the ecosystem’s tools more broadly by leveraging the relationship with entrepreneurs and the notion of mission to move towards an optimal social position.  

Beyond generating economic growth, entrepreneurial ecosystems and innovation policies are increasingly expected to contribute to solving social challenges and that is why many of the mission-oriented innovation initiatives have as one of their key objectives to foster the implementation of the SDGs.

Innovation policies, therefore, seek to generate transformational change in society. However, attention must be paid to the possible areas of failure that arise when implementing these policies for change, which are directionality, policy coordination, demand-articulation and reflexivity. To achieve the objective of these policies, it is necessary to implement measures that ensure coordination between these policies and the different sectors of society to stimulate new development paths and increase solutions that better respond to challenges at a local, national, European and global level.

Missions have a great power of change that can also contribute to the development of ecosystems. It is essential to support entrepreneurship and understand the complexity of its operating environment to be able to offer help and resources efficiently. In this sense, the concept of ecosystem has great value in the entrepreneurship environment and refers to the above. It can be said that ecosystems involve an interrelationship between companies and their social, political, academic and economic environment, and depending on the environment this relationship will be more or less fluid. It is very difficult to determine these relationships independently, so it is more appropriate to address them all together. All these factors are considered and put in value when proposing mission-oriented innovation initiatives, since they are initiatives with enormous transforming power and before launching a project of this size it is necessary to be very conscious of all that it implies and all the elements that compose it in order to achieve the objectives set in an effective way.

The rationale elaborated above directs our mapping towards initiatives that explicitly address mission orientation and ecosystem-based approaches to a greater or lesser extent. Therefore, in this study, we have chosen to analyze different mission-oriented innovation initiatives from three different approaches that in practice often overlap.

  • On the one hand, we have research-driven, mission-oriented innovation initiatives with an emphasis on knowledge creation. These initiatives are mainly led by research organizations that address specific challenges with clear objectives, concrete deadlines and give enormous importance to the development of technology, as it produces a great social impact. In this section, we have included three initiatives that we have found very interesting, such as the Horizon Europe missions, the SFI challenges and the Vinnova challenge-driven innovation program.
  • On the other hand, we have industry-driven innovation ecosystem initiatives with an emphasis on knowledge application. These initiatives are led by large corporations involving diverse stakeholders to jointly address innovation and market creation, often in relation to poorly defined challenges. What differentiates this category from the other two is the existence of a mature business model and an effective industry structure at the international level. In this section, the initiatives chosen were the knowledge communities of the Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT), the UK Catapult centres and the Canadian Superclusters.
  • Finally, we analyzed entrepreneurs-driven entrepreneurship ecosystem initiatives with an emphasis on market access and scaling up. These initiatives are driven by intermediary agents that improve the capabilities and general conditions for entrepreneurship. Likewise, other factors such as business creation and development support measures also seek to provide useful solutions to current social challenges. In this last section we have analyzed three other initiatives from three different areas of the world: Business Finland’s Growth Engines, Manizales-Mas in Colombia and Turkey’s SDG Impact Accelerator.

Therefore, in this study, nine public initiatives are analyzed in depth by adopting a longitudinal approach in terms of missions and based on six areas of analysis, namely the introduction and background of the initiative, its objectives and goals, the actors involved, the type of governance, the support mechanisms and the programming.

Each of the initiatives is unique in itself and presents characteristics that are very different from the rest, which are worth analyzing in detail and emphasizing as we do in the report. However, they also share some common features.

In some cases, the initiatives outsource the programming of the instruments used in the process. This can be cumbersome but is interesting to consider as it eases the administrative burden and incentivizes ecosystem coordination. Regardless of the emphasis on in-house or outsourced management practices, programming can benefit from incorporating several stages that allow for flexible reallocation of resources based on monitored performance. In line with the international trend, it would also be interesting to consider the possibility of establishing incentives and requirements for beneficiaries in other contexts within ecosystems.

Likewise, mission development is a complex process that requires the joint collaboration of various parties to achieve the desired outcome. In designing the procedures of an agency seeking to obtain and use intelligence in this process, it is very important to implement more directional, mission-oriented approaches. The reasons for selecting and prioritizing mission domains should be controlled through transparent communication among ecosystem actors. Ideally, these processes engage stakeholders in activities in which they participate jointly, but in which they not only create joint visions but also develop collaborative relationships to better address the joint challenges that arise.

It is therefore worth asking whether these innovation initiatives are an efficient and effective tool for change to address the economic, political, and social problems that arise daily in our society. Each one of them presents clear and defined goals that are already being carried out to a greater or lesser extent, thus meeting the challenges we face as a society. Every day there is more and more interest and concern worldwide to propose and carry out innovation policies that really lead us towards more inclusive and sustainable business and growth models. However, we need to invest even more in R&I and bet on mission-oriented instruments and initiatives aimed at creating systemic change in society.

You can download the full report free of charge below. For more information, please contact: info@if-institute.org. 

1/2021 IFI Report - Mission-oriented Instruments

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Fractal Innovation

The Chairman of IFI Advisory Board, José Manuel Leceta connects in his latest book the innovation with the fractals that are mathematical objects present in nature. Halfway between art and science, they describe complexity with simplicity, knowing the underlying pattern that is reproduced at different levels.

Fractal Innovation

 

Successful innovation must also be simple, although it is not always simple. What if, as with fractals, there are underlying structures that reproduce at different levels? In essence, that is the thesis of his book ‘ Fractal Innovation’. And for this, he defends that innovating is betting on people; that entrepreneurship is a contact sport and that, like life, innovative entrepreneurship is a journey. This work is an original reflection on a complex phenomenon, from the conviction that those who understand the dynamics of change that induce innovation and entrepreneurship will be in a better position to understand the world a little better.

The book available

Innovación Fractal (amazon.com)

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