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You are here: Home / Archives for Project Sectors

After the New Normal: Scenarios for Europe in the Post Covid-19 World

The team of Insight Foresight Institute developed this study alongside experts from Fraunhofer ISI and AIT. The study examined five alternative scenarios for Europe in 2040 emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic’s disruption, focusing on their implications for EU research and innovation policy. The aim was to analyze how the pandemic’s amplification of global uncertainties might reshape long-term R&I priorities, and to provide policymakers with strategic perspectives on potential post-crisis evolution paths.

After the new normal photo

Based on extensive literature review and expert workshops, the study outlines five scenarios reflecting divergent futures shaped by the pandemic’s long-term effects on research, innovation, and social resilience. Rather than predicting a single outcome, these scenarios serve as strategic narratives to stimulate policy reflection and guide future decisions, exploring a range of possibilities in economic recovery, political cohesion, and societal transformation.

The five scenarios include:

  • Long Recession – Europe faces sustained economic stagnation, rising nationalism, and shrinking public R&I investments.
  • Back to ‘Normal’ – Attempts to return to pre-pandemic normalcy led to institutional stagnation.
  • Techno-Feudal Europe – Technological power concentrates in private hands, weakening democratic oversight.
  • Circular trials and real-life errors scenario – Economic model based on sharing, leasing, reuse, repair, refurbish and recycling in an (almost) closed loop.
  • Green Utopia – A transformation towards equity and ecological sustainability through coordinated green transitions.
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The authors  outline the core methodology, including horizon scanning and scenario-building. It positions research and innovation (R&I) as central levers for navigating uncertainty and advancing EU objectives. Emphasizing the need for:

  • Control over technological development.
  • Resilience, adaptability and crisis preparedness for times of crises.
  • The key role of education.
  • EU level financing for R&I.
  • Regional disparities in R&I performance.
  • Defining future priorities in R&I policy.

The report concludes with a call to reimagine Europe’s future beyond recovery—to build a more inclusive, forward-looking, and resilient Union. It recognizes that Covid-19 was not merely a crisis, but a pivotal moment to reshape the trajectories of European integration, innovation, and sustainability.

Authors

European Commission. Dictorate-General for Research and Innovation – Kerstin Cuhls (coordination, Fraunhofer ISI), Aaron Rosa (Fraunhofer ISI), Matthias Weber (AIT), Susanne Giesecke (AIT), Dana Wasserbacher (AIT), Totti Könnölä (IFI).

Acess to full report
After the new normal: Scenarios for Europe in the post Covid-19 world. A Foresight on Demand Project.

ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation

The IFI team, contributed to the development of this project alongside a team formed by the members of Technopolis Group, Austrian Institute of Technologies. A roadmap on the area of industrial technology, focused on human-centric R&I is developed. The work was performed under the European Commission framework contract “Foresight on Demand” and was completed in May 2024.

ERA photo

Human centricity is one of the three pillars of Industry 5.0. This Roadmap shows how industrial innovation ecosystem stakeholders can take a leading role in achieving human-centric outcomes in technology development and adoption, such as improving workers’ safety and wellbeing, upskilling or learning. There are significant opportunities to capture the transformative potential of ground-breaking technologies like artificial intelligence and virtual worlds through more human-centric and user-driven design approaches. The roadmap recommends that policy makers support integrating human-centricity considerations in education and training, R&I funding and in company training and innovation strategies.

The study starts by explaining the basis of its research: Industry 5.0 and Human-centricity. Industry 5.0 represents a transformative vision of the industry, positioning it as a driver of sustainability, resilience, and human-centricity. This vision supports a paradigm shift toward industries that operate within planetary boundaries, leave no one behind, and actively contribute to well-being and planetary regeneration. 

Human-centricity is one of the three pillars of Industry 5.0, aligning with the European Commission’s priorities for an Economy that Works for People, alongside initiatives for a Europe Fit for the Digital Age and the EU Green Deal. In other words, it is a framework that places human needs, characteristics and experiences at the centre of design, development and implementation of technological solutions. Historically, human-centricity in technology development has been approached through Human-Centred Design (HCD).

However, the adoption of human-centric approaches faces important challenges. Difficulties in technology design encompass the absence of practical guidelines and standards, the complexity arising from required high customisation, and the difficulty in adopting a multidisciplinary approach involving ergonomics, behavioural science, cognitive processes, and socio-cultural dimensions within the manufacturing workforce.

Adoption and implementation of human-centric approaches to technology need further evidence of a favourable return on investment and are faced with complications due to the multidisciplinary requirements in deployment, attracting a skilled workforce, ensuring harmonious integration with existing infrastructure, budget constraints and increased workloads during scale-up.

The roadmap outlines key dimensions for advancing human-centricity in Industry 5.0 taking the previous challenges into account: 

  1. Technologies and their potential: the roadmap identifies technologies that leverage human creativity and intelligent machines to create resource-efficient, user-centred manufacturing solutions.
  2. Organizational environment: it focuses on processes, methods, and managerial practices that enhance human-centricity, such as human-centred design processes and workflow management.
  3. R&I investments: highlights public and private sector investments in human-centric technologies and start-ups.
  4. Framework conditions: examines societal, demographic, and governance drivers, as well as skills, competencies, and infrastructure needed to support human-centricity.

Authors

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Seán O’Reagain, Lura Roman, Doris Schröcker, Evgeni Evgeniev and Peter Dröl. With the collaboration of Orestas Strauka Carmen Moreno, Izabella Martins Grapengiesser, Krystel Montpetit, Viola Peter, Karl-Heinz Leitner, Huu-Quynh-Huong Nyuyen, Nico Pintar, Wolfram Rhomberg, Manfred Tscheligi, Setareh Zafari and Totti Könnölä . ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation – Foresight on demand (FoD), Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Acess to full report
ERA Industrial Technologies Roadmap on Human-Centric Research and Innovation

Expectations and assumptions for the future in Horizon Europe

The CEO of IFI, Totti Könnölä  conducted with Philine Warnke and Ralph Gutknecht, from the Fraunhofer ISI a study on “Expectations and assumptions for the future in the Work Programme 2021-2022 of Horizon Europe”. The study scanned the HE Work Programme 2021- 2022 for assumptions and expectations about the future and conducted a Delphi survey of experts on the likely time of realization of those expectations and assumptions. The analysis revealed three overlapping, but distinct types of challenges associated with assumptions and expectations that should be recognised in future work programmes: policy challenges, diversification challenges and reflexivity challenges.

Expectations and assumptions photo

When it comes to policy changes, some goals are seen as valuable but unrealistic due to limited R&I potential and political barriers. Future programs could focus on areas with favorable conditions for R&I, integrate social sciences and stakeholder dialogues, or align R&I with other policies like agriculture. However, success isn’t guaranteed as social, and policy changes are slow. Examples include sustainable agri-food systems, industrial and transport decarbonization, and personalized health.

The category of diversification challenges includes goals seen as controversial or unsolvable. Reframing problems and diversifying approaches, especially by incorporating societal change perspectives (e.g., human behavior, social innovation), may help. Integrating or connecting research teams could improve outcomes. Examples of this are circular products, sustainable energy, and digital agriculture.

About reflexivity challenges, it is known that in some cases, refining key concepts and fostering shared understanding among stakeholders (e.g., patients, CSOs) is needed. Examples of the study include “One Health” and “strategic autonomy.”

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Challenges were categorized into near-term (now–2030), mid-term (2030–2050), long-term (2050–never), and inconclusive (divergent opinions). Experts’ comments were further analysed to see if the statements’ goals were shared or contested. The study highlights 27 statements offering key insights: some show near-term issues are almost resolved, suggesting more ambitious future programs; others with long-term or “never” timelines imply unrealistic goals needing adjustments; and contested statements point to the need for deliberative processes or alternative approaches. This study concludes with lessons for future work programmes and specific cluster findings, with annexes detailing original assumptions and survey data.

The study found that while most expectations in the Horizon Europe Work Programme 2021-2022 are broadly shared, many are controversial or risky due to three main factors:
a) Goals with long-term, uncertain outcomes needing justification for current relevance.
b) Goals already achieved or near completion, questioning Horizon Europe’s role.
c) Inherently controversial goals requiring consideration of diverse viewpoints.

Most expectations fit a mid-to-long-term horizon, aligning with Horizon Europe’s ambitions. However, three overarching challenges were identified:

  1. Policy Challenges:      
    Some goals, though relevant, are unrealistic due to political barriers or limited R&I potential. Solutions include focusing on areas with favourable conditions, integrating social sciences and stakeholder dialogues, or aligning R&I with other policies like agriculture. Examples include sustainable agri-food systems, industrial decarbonization, and personalized health.
  2. Diversification Challenges:    
    This group includes topics with disagreement on goals or deemed unsolvable. Reframing problems and integrating societal perspectives (e.g., human behaviour, social innovation) could help. Connecting research teams may also enhance effectiveness. Examples of this are circular products, sustainable energy, and agricultural digitalization.
  3. Reflexivity Challenges:            
    Some topics require clearer conceptual understanding, suggesting the need for shared frameworks and integrating key users like patients or CSOs. For example, “One Health” and “strategic autonomy.”

Authors

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Warnke, P., Gutknecht, R. and Könnölä, T., Expectations and assumptions for the future in the work programme 2021-2022 of Horizon Europe – Foresight on demand (FoD), Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report
Expectations and assumptions for the future in the Work Programme 2021-2022 of Horizon Europe

IFI joins AMETIC, our president to lead the innovation commission

AMETIC’s Board of Directors has ratified the incorporation of IFI as a new associate to AMETIC and appointed José Manuel Leceta, the president of IFI’s high-level advisory board, as the president of AMETIC’s innovation committee.

Screenshot

AMETIC is the association representing the digital industry sector in Spain, from SMEs to large global companies in the fields of Information Technologies, Telecommunications, Electronics Industry, Digital Content and Services, Digital Transformation, Enabling Technologies, Banking, Energy, Sustainability, etc. AMETIC is also made up of other sector associations at a territorial level and technology parks.

The Innovation Commission deals with cross-cutting innovation activity that is fundamental for promoting an internationally competitive digital industry. The work of the commission focuses on public policies to support R&I, deployed in the State R&I strategies and plans and the instruments defined therein, as well as in international R&I programmes such as Horizon Europe, Digital Europe Programme, among others.

For more information

https://ametic.es/comisiones/comision-de-innovacion/

International analysis on mission-oriented instruments

At the Insight Foresight Institute, we have recently conducted a study for ENISA – Empresa Nacional de Innovacion, S.A. on this subject focusing on initiatives launched by public sector entities. Our mapping points to initiatives that explicitly address mission orientation and ecosystem-based approaches to a greater or lesser extent. Our work helps to understand how mission-oriented innovation initiatives operate and everything that actually happens, from the pre-planning stages to the moment they are launched, and we start to see short- and long-term results, going through all the necessary economic, political and social organization and management to make each initiative happen.

International analysis on mission-oriented instruments

 

Today there is a growing global concern about economic, social and environmental issues, and therefore, different countries are trying to be actors of change and close the gap between just creating knowledge and actually taking action. Indeed, a series of decisive policy measures and efforts are needed to ensure that the innovation policies of the next generations are up to the challenges we are facing today. Focusing on mission orientation is a new challenge, but it is also a great opportunity. An opportunity motivated by the ambition to explore the ecosystem’s tools more broadly by leveraging the relationship with entrepreneurs and the notion of mission to move towards an optimal social position.  

Beyond generating economic growth, entrepreneurial ecosystems and innovation policies are increasingly expected to contribute to solving social challenges and that is why many of the mission-oriented innovation initiatives have as one of their key objectives to foster the implementation of the SDGs.

Innovation policies, therefore, seek to generate transformational change in society. However, attention must be paid to the possible areas of failure that arise when implementing these policies for change, which are directionality, policy coordination, demand-articulation and reflexivity. To achieve the objective of these policies, it is necessary to implement measures that ensure coordination between these policies and the different sectors of society to stimulate new development paths and increase solutions that better respond to challenges at a local, national, European and global level.

Missions have a great power of change that can also contribute to the development of ecosystems. It is essential to support entrepreneurship and understand the complexity of its operating environment to be able to offer help and resources efficiently. In this sense, the concept of ecosystem has great value in the entrepreneurship environment and refers to the above. It can be said that ecosystems involve an interrelationship between companies and their social, political, academic and economic environment, and depending on the environment this relationship will be more or less fluid. It is very difficult to determine these relationships independently, so it is more appropriate to address them all together. All these factors are considered and put in value when proposing mission-oriented innovation initiatives, since they are initiatives with enormous transforming power and before launching a project of this size it is necessary to be very conscious of all that it implies and all the elements that compose it in order to achieve the objectives set in an effective way.

The rationale elaborated above directs our mapping towards initiatives that explicitly address mission orientation and ecosystem-based approaches to a greater or lesser extent. Therefore, in this study, we have chosen to analyze different mission-oriented innovation initiatives from three different approaches that in practice often overlap.

  • On the one hand, we have research-driven, mission-oriented innovation initiatives with an emphasis on knowledge creation. These initiatives are mainly led by research organizations that address specific challenges with clear objectives, concrete deadlines and give enormous importance to the development of technology, as it produces a great social impact. In this section, we have included three initiatives that we have found very interesting, such as the Horizon Europe missions, the SFI challenges and the Vinnova challenge-driven innovation program.
  • On the other hand, we have industry-driven innovation ecosystem initiatives with an emphasis on knowledge application. These initiatives are led by large corporations involving diverse stakeholders to jointly address innovation and market creation, often in relation to poorly defined challenges. What differentiates this category from the other two is the existence of a mature business model and an effective industry structure at the international level. In this section, the initiatives chosen were the knowledge communities of the Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT), the UK Catapult centres and the Canadian Superclusters.
  • Finally, we analyzed entrepreneurs-driven entrepreneurship ecosystem initiatives with an emphasis on market access and scaling up. These initiatives are driven by intermediary agents that improve the capabilities and general conditions for entrepreneurship. Likewise, other factors such as business creation and development support measures also seek to provide useful solutions to current social challenges. In this last section we have analyzed three other initiatives from three different areas of the world: Business Finland’s Growth Engines, Manizales-Mas in Colombia and Turkey’s SDG Impact Accelerator.

Therefore, in this study, nine public initiatives are analyzed in depth by adopting a longitudinal approach in terms of missions and based on six areas of analysis, namely the introduction and background of the initiative, its objectives and goals, the actors involved, the type of governance, the support mechanisms and the programming.

Each of the initiatives is unique in itself and presents characteristics that are very different from the rest, which are worth analyzing in detail and emphasizing as we do in the report. However, they also share some common features.

In some cases, the initiatives outsource the programming of the instruments used in the process. This can be cumbersome but is interesting to consider as it eases the administrative burden and incentivizes ecosystem coordination. Regardless of the emphasis on in-house or outsourced management practices, programming can benefit from incorporating several stages that allow for flexible reallocation of resources based on monitored performance. In line with the international trend, it would also be interesting to consider the possibility of establishing incentives and requirements for beneficiaries in other contexts within ecosystems.

Likewise, mission development is a complex process that requires the joint collaboration of various parties to achieve the desired outcome. In designing the procedures of an agency seeking to obtain and use intelligence in this process, it is very important to implement more directional, mission-oriented approaches. The reasons for selecting and prioritizing mission domains should be controlled through transparent communication among ecosystem actors. Ideally, these processes engage stakeholders in activities in which they participate jointly, but in which they not only create joint visions but also develop collaborative relationships to better address the joint challenges that arise.

It is therefore worth asking whether these innovation initiatives are an efficient and effective tool for change to address the economic, political, and social problems that arise daily in our society. Each one of them presents clear and defined goals that are already being carried out to a greater or lesser extent, thus meeting the challenges we face as a society. Every day there is more and more interest and concern worldwide to propose and carry out innovation policies that really lead us towards more inclusive and sustainable business and growth models. However, we need to invest even more in R&I and bet on mission-oriented instruments and initiatives aimed at creating systemic change in society.

You can download the full report free of charge below. For more information, please contact: info@if-institute.org. 

1/2021 IFI Report - Mission-oriented Instruments

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