IFI’s team has developed this study alongside experts from AIT, Fraunhofer ISI, IP, ISINNOVA and Visionary Analytics. The present report shows the results of a study on S&T&I for 2050: science, technology and innovation for ecosystem performance – accelerating sustainability transitions. The aim was to identify, map and assess future scientific and technological developments that can radically improve or threaten ecosystem performance. The work was performed under the coordination of the Directorate-General for Research and Innovation of the European Commission. The manuscript was completed in May 2023.
Based on literature review, the project team developed three perspectives on future relations between humans and nature and humans’ role in the flourishing of planetary ecosystems. Drawing in addition on a two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey on the most dynamic scientific and technological developments, six cased studies on core sustainability issues explored the three perspectives. Reflections on implications for R&I policies in the context of the European Green Deal conclude each case study.
Chapter 2 scopes and deliberates an appropriate notion of ecosystem performance, functionally equivalent to “human performance” in relation to science, technology and innovation, taking into consideration socio-economic aspects. Based on literature review, three perspectives were identified that then built the basis of the study:
- Protecting & Restoring. The notion of the ecosystem lays on distinctive nature sphere interacting with the human sphere. What it is proposed is to manage the impact of human activities to reach a desired target.
- Co-shaping socio-ecological systems. The ecosystem is based on complex adaptative socio-ecological systems with no clear boundaries. It is proposed to move specific socio- ecological systems towards more beneficial dynamics.
- Immersing & Caring with hybrid collectives. The notion of the ecosystem is based on pluriverse of hybrid entities with agency emerging out of relations to each other. The attitude towards its performance should be of negotiation with other inhabitants of critical zones to allow all to flourish on their own terms.
Chapter 3 maps strong and emerging trends in science, technology and innovation in relation to ecosystem performance in a way that is meaningful for S&T&I policy and allows to discuss the possible consequences for what and how to research and innovate with a wide range of stakeholders in order to contribute to the Green Deal and related EU policies and to raise awareness of changes in human health related to ecosystem changes. To identify future scientific and technological developments that can radically improve ecosystem performance, the study consulted the most cited researchers in a two-round Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey.
Finally, Chapter 4 provides case studies with scenarios in selected fields to illustrate the new thinking and builds narratives on different lines of R&I development that could inform programming and implementation of Horizon, Europe and help to evaluate projects and policy decisions. They explore different scenarios related to the different perspectives on, and understandings of society-nature interactions, their pre-conditions, and implications. The following are the evaluated cases:
- Law for Nature
- Land Use Futures
- Soil to Soul.
- Accelerating Transitions to Regenerative Economy.
- Ecosystems and Micro-and Nano Cosmos.
- Data as Representation.
There has been a shift in the expectations of development in S&T&I since the turn of the centuries. Now, societal challenges have shifted towards global threats for human health and planetary health. This shift has made clear the urgency and the need to a broader perspective on how to accelerate transitions and how to keep on track to reach climate-neutrality by 2050. The authors conclude by stating that there is a need to (re-)consider the relation between society and nature in further developing the STI policy strategy.
Authors
European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation. Klaus Kubeczko, Project Coordination, Michael Bernstein, Dana Wasserbacher, Beatrix Wepner, Philine Warnke, Totti Könnölä, Liviu Andreescu, Bianca Dragomir, Radu Cristian Gheorghiu, Carlo Sessa, Daniel Cassolà, Žilvinas Martinaitis – S&T&I FOR 2050: Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transition.
