Outreach – Page 3 – Insight Foresight Institute

Scenarios on Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering

The CEO of Insight Foresight Institute, Totti Könnölä, led the team of experts, Albert Norström, Benjamin K. Sovacool, Duncan McLaren, and Sirkku Juhola to develop alternative scenarios for climate mitigation and adaptation. The work was part of the project “Foresight for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2024-2027)” conducted by the Foresight on Demand Consortium. The objective was to synthesise expert insights from the “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering” Deep Dive (June-October 2022), providing strategic intelligence to inform the European Commission’s DG RTD on potential research and innovation (R&I) pathways for climate challenges.

By exploring climate risks, research frontiers, and societal change drivers, the project developed four distinct scenarios for Europe’s climate future towards 2040. The scenarios offer strategic lenses to anticipate possible developments, challenges, and opportunities for European R&I policy. The scenario-building approach identified four core axes shaping future pathways:

Global governance: The degree of international coordination on climate policy.

Sustainable lifestyles: The depth of societal transformation towards low-carbon consumption and living.

Risk acceptance: Societal openness to experimentation with climate innovations, including emerging or controversial technologies.

Activism: The vibrancy and diversity of civic engagement—from formal institutions to disruptive grassroots movements.

The Four Climate Scenarios

1. Sustainable Transition

The EU establishes itself as a global leader in climate policy through robust governance, citizen assemblies, and large-scale adoption of nature-based solutions. Responsible R&I policy guides innovation, supporting transparent frameworks for carbon removal and exporting European climate innovations worldwide. Social engagement is institutionalized, and the precautionary principle is reinterpreted to enable transformative experimentation.

2. Coalition of Sustainable Communities

Here, Europe witnesses a profound decentralization of power, with resilient communities leading the shift away from consumption and ownership towards sharing, cooperation, and connection with nature. Social innovation is driven from the bottom up, and local food and energy systems become central to sustainability. Pluralism, grassroots democracy, and circular economies thrive.

3. Deepening Divisions

An escalation in populism and nationalism leads to fragmentation within Europe and a breakdown of international climate collaboration. Rising inequalities, polarized societies, and ineffective adaptation efforts amplify climate impacts and social unrest. Technology adoption is uneven, and public debate is dominated by misinformation and radical activism.

4. The Technological Fix

This scenario envisions a future where major technology firms and market forces drive climate responses. Europe bets on breakthrough technologies—such as geoengineering, advanced renewables, and large-scale hydrogen—but at the expense of social cohesion and civic engagement. Market mechanisms and tech innovation accelerate, but disparities widen and social innovation lags behind.

Strategic Recommendations for Horizon Europe:
Drawing on these scenarios and trends, the chapter recommends:

Enhancing Resilience: Policies should prioritize flexibility and science-based adaptation to climate uncertainties.

Fostering Inclusivity: R&I programmes must enable dialogue, ethical reflection, and societal engagement on climate solutions.

Integrating Approaches: Combining social innovation with emerging technologies is essential for a just and sustainable transition.

Strengthening Leadership: The EU can lead by example, promoting responsible climate governance and supporting transformative research.

By mapping alternative scenarios and emerging trends, Chapter 5 provides strategic intelligence for Horizon Europe’s 2nd Strategic Plan. The analysis underscores the importance of proactive, inclusive, and forward-looking R&I policies to accelerate climate mitigation and adaptation—securing Europe’s leadership in sustainability for the coming decades.

Further information

Totti Könnölä, Albert Norström, Benjamin K. Sovacool, Duncan McLaren, Sirkku Juhola. “Climate Change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering”, Chapter 5, In European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Foresight on demand – “Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe.”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe – Case Study 2: Climate Change, Research and Innovation

Foresight for Preparing the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe

The team of Insight Foresight Institute participated in this project of the Foresight on Demand consortium, alongside a variety of experts and institutions that collaborate with the European Commission. Given the length of the study, Inisght Foresight Institute collaborated specifically on Chapter 5 (participating) and Chapter 6 (leading).

The report delivered a foresight study to inform the Horizon Europe Strategic Plan (2025-2027) through early-stage strategic intelligence, featuring future scenarios, analyses of disruptive trends, and stakeholder engagement activities. The aim was to identify emerging issues, trends, and perspectives that could introduce novel elements to strategic planning processes, while capturing challenges, opportunities, and public proposals for Horizon Europe’s future orientation.

For instance, the study outlined six multi-level context scenarios that combine different global perspectives – from collaborative to hostile – with contrasting EU conditions (resilient vs vulnerable). These scenarios serve as possible “playing fields” for EU research and innovation policy.

Key Insights:

Eleven disruptive areas were analyzed, including Artificial General Intelligence, transhumanism, climate change, global governance, hydrogen economy, and new societal value shifts.

These were grouped into four clusters: global landscape, technology & society, society & nature, and social/value transformations.

Expert surveys and scenario-building revealed future R&I policy needs.

Strategic Implications:

EU leadership: Europe must strengthen its technological and industrial positioning while contributing to global commons and responsible governance.

Resilience: Policies must anticipate crises—whether environmental, health-related, social or geopolitical—through agile, science-based responses.

Reflexivity & ethics: Frontier topics (e.g., geoengineering, human enhancement, AI) require early and inclusive societal debate.

Nature-society balance: R&I must address not just technological goals but also redefine humanity’s relationship with ecosystems.

Open and adaptive instruments: EU research programmes need greater openness, flexibility, and rapid feedback mechanisms to remain effective under uncertainty.

Global partnerships: The EU should combine strategic alliances with global rule-setting in areas such as AI, climate, and sustainability.

This foresight effort offers not only a vision for Horizon Europe, but a foundation for a more resilient, inclusive and forward-looking R&I ecosystem in Europe—capable of addressing both today’s challenges and tomorrow’s unknowns.

More information

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Foresight on demand – “Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe” – Foresight, Weber, M.(editor), Wasserbacher, D.(editor) and Kastrinos, N.(editor), Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

Foresight on Demand: Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe

Future Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on European Consumer Behaviour

A project was carried out by the Foresight on Demand consortium, including partners Fraunhofer ISI, ISINNOVA, AIT, FFRC, and Insight Foresight Institute. It presents the results of a foresight exercise on consumer policy toward 2030, focusing on anticipating challenges within the context of the twin transitions (green and digital) and examining both the short- and long-term impacts of the pandemic on consumer behaviour, consumption patterns, and European markets. The aim was to identify and assess future trends and disruptions that will shape consumer policy in this evolving landscape.

The final report, titled “Impact of the Pandemic on European Consumer Behavior,” combines trend analysis, scenario building, and expert input to offer strategic, forward-looking recommendations. Using a STEEPV analysis framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Values-based), the study identifies 29 key drivers of change. Among the most prominent are:

Accelerated digitalization: A rise in e-commerce, digital platforms, and new forms of intermediation.

Shifting risk perception: Increased focus on health, safety, and well-being.

Heightened sustainability awareness: Consumers are more conscious of the social and environmental impacts of their decisions.

Emergence of new inequalities: Digital divides and lack of tech skills have intensified vulnerabilities.

Transformations in employment and mobility: The rise of remote work, redefinition of urban space, and new forms of local leisure and consumption.

Four Future Scenarios for 2030

The report does not aim to predict the future but rather constructs four plausible scenarios to explore the implications of different trajectories:

1. United by a Resilient and Sustainable Society

A model based on equity, green innovation, and multilateral cooperation becomes dominant. Consumption decisions align with collective values, and strong data protection is in place.

2. Green Growth with Rising Inequality

Technological development advances but deepens social divides. Data-driven price personalization becomes standard, while geopolitical and digital tensions escalate.

3. Green Innovation with Inequality Mitigation

Europe achieves a balance between efficiency and fairness. Social innovation, citizen participation, and rural revitalization are promoted.

4. Inequality at the Edge

Marked by social fragmentation, climate emergency, and erosion of consumer rights. Consumption is mediated by dominant platforms and algorithms.

Seven Priorities for a Resilient, Future-Ready Consumer Policy

The findings outline a strategic action framework with seven key areas, aimed at strengthening the New Consumer Agenda:

Smart labeling: Clear, accessible, and comparable information on sustainability, product origin, and lifecycle.
Data spaces for consumption: Secure and ethical infrastructures for data sharing between consumers, businesses, and authorities.
Sustainability by design: Regulations that promote product durability, repairability, and reuse from the manufacturing stage.
Consumer participation: Encourage the co-creation of products and services with users and communities.
Personal data regulation: Clear rules on how personal data is collected, processed, and used in digital environments.
Digital consumer empowerment: Tools that allow users to manage their preferences, rights, and online exposure.
Agile and multi-level governance: Effective coordination among local, national, and European institutions, with the ability to adapt to evolving contexts.

Authors

European Commission: Directorate-General for Justice and Consumers. Simone Kimpeler, Kerstin Cuhls, Charlotte Freudenberg (Fraunhofer ISI), Giovanna Guiffrè, Giorgia Galvini, Andrea Ricci, Loredana Marmora (ISINNOVA), Susanne Giesecke, Dana Wasserbacher (AIT), Sirkka Heinonen, Mikkel Knudsen (FFRC), Totti Könnölä (IFI).

Acess to full report

Foresight on Demand: Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on European Consumer Behaviour – Final Report

Basque Circular Summit 2025

During the days 2,3 and 4th of April, Insight Foresight Institute’s team attended the Basque Circular Summit 2025 in Bilbao. The event was organised by the Basque Government and Ihobe. Ihobe is a publicly owned company that works under the Basque Government’s Ministry of Industry, Energy Transition and Sustainability.

The BSC 2025 has been the largest event on circular economy in southern Europe this year. Overall, it addressed the challenges that the Basque Country has to face in the Circularity area. For that matter, many opportunities and projects were discussed and analysed. Furthermore, although the summit has a clear Basque perspective, the broader view that Spain and Europe have on circular economy was shown. In line with that, many experts were invited to participate in the summit, Janez Potocnik, Mónica Chao or Ioanis Retsoulis among many others.

The summit had three main areas of focus:

Forum: it covered a vast area of the Circular Economy. The forum was based on a variety of conferences given by research experts, companies and public administration figures. Given the number of subjects covered, there were parallel sessions, which facilitated participants to choose the conferences they were interested on.
Expo: as the name indicates it was an exposition that reunited the recent developments in the area of circular economy that Basque companies have done. The second day of the summit, the best innovations were given an award as a recognition for their contribution to CE.
Village: the village was held as the meeting point of the event. It was composed by stands of businesses and entities from the Basque Country. 20 stands were showing achievements in the field of sustainability along with future strategies. The village allowed participants to interact with each other and share common ideas on the subject.

Thanks to the forum, IFI’s team was able to attend to twelve sessions that covered the following themes: textile industry, the New Industrial Pact, critical raw materials, future CE challenges in Europe, Digital Product Passport, circular cities, sustainable finances, waste management in Europe, the role of consumers in CE, metrics for the environmental evaluation, clean technologies and eco-innovations for material’s efficiency.

Even though the event was organised by the Basque Government, every conference had the perspectives of institutions or enterprises from Euskadi, Spain and Europe. This factor was key to align the different initiatives and works towards a cooperative transition. Additionally, the number of participants and spectators surpassed the 1,300 which demonstrated the commitment of the people both from inside and outside the sector of the Circular Economy.

Summing up the Basque Circular Summit 2025 has shown the commitment of the Basque Country’s both private and public sectors with sustainable practices. It reaffirms that the path to follow in the next decades is going to be based on circular approaches, aligning with Europe’s long-term objectives. The Circular Economy is a challenge but above all, an opportunity to boost competitiveness in the Basque Country and in Europe.

Geopolitical & industrial decarbonisation scenarios to identify R&I opportunities for the EU

As part of ‘the Eye of Europe’ Horizon Europe Project, Insight Foresight Institute organised an in-person stakeholder workshop on ‘Geopolitical & industrial decarbonisation scenarios to identify R&I opportunities for the EU’ on 10-11 April 2025 in Madrid, Spain. The event consisted of debating around a primary issue on the EU’s agenda: how to navigate geopolitical issues to keep decarbonising the continent towards sustainable and competitive sectors.

The workshop gathered more than 30 experts specialised in different areas related to circular economy, decarbonisation, sustainability, innovation, geopolitics etc. The objective was to use foresight methods (scenarios and roadmaps) in order to plan different strategies to navigate industrial decarbonisation. For that matter, three different small groups were created:

Energy Security and Supply moderated by Attila Havas.
Critical Raw Materials moderated by Totti Könnölä.
Manufacturing in Hard-to-Abate Sectors moderated by Karl-Heinz Leitner.

Participants attended this two-day workshop which started with introductory presentations by experts from public institutions such as the European Commission or the Spanish Ministry of Industry. Once participants were put into context, the common scenario work began in the mentioned small groups. The second day, the debate was focused on roadmpaping for R&I needs and emerging areas. The findings and conclusions were gathered in the final plenary and will soon be published on a report.

The dynamic teamwork carried out by participants with such different backgrounds allowed to gather diverse outcomes from the exercise. The decarbonisation process of the European industry has already begun, and it is crucial to consider every factor in order to apply the adequate strategies. From the Insight Foresight Institute’s team we would like to thank all the participants that attended those two days to debate about the future of the decarbonisation process in Europe.