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Foresight Workshops identifying Future Topics for European Research Area

Insight Foresight Institute is part of ‘Eye of Europe’ – a foresight project within Horizon Europe. The project has organised various thematic workshops with diverse stakeholders. Insight Foresight Institute prepared a policy brief based on these workshops. The brief also informs about the upcoming workshops and the futures4europe platform, the online home of the European foresight community, where visitors can explore a rich collection of foresight projects, showcase their work, and discover foresight-related upcoming events.

Key messages from the first workshops:

I. Long-term Future of Democracy in the EU and Beyond: The online workshop, organised by the Austrian Institute of Technology, brought together international experts to explore future challenges for democratic systems using a multi-method approach, including roundtable discussions on governance and a “literary quartet” analysing democracy in science fiction. Key takeaways emphasised media pluralism, long-term thinking, and diversity as essential for safeguarding democracy, while exploring alternative governance models and community-led solutions to global challenges like climate change.

II. Future of Sustainable Fashion: The two Future of Sustainable Fashion workshops in Greece, organised by Helenos Consulting, explored the intersection of sustainability, technology, and societal values in the fashion industry using participatory foresight methods. Participants examined key challenges—such as supply chain transparency, smart textiles, inclusive design, and eco-friendly materials—through speculative “What If” scenarios and mixed-media artefacts. To drive systemic change, the workshops called for policy frameworks that prioritise green practices, fair labour, and transparent supply chains, ensuring sustainability becomes mainstream in the industry.

III. Futures of Science and Conflict via Scenario Development: The online workshop, organised by Fraunhofer ISI, explored future scenarios for science and research communities amid growing geopolitical tensions. Using the Tetralemma method (see Figure below), participants analysed key influencing factors—such as AI integration, disinformation, disaster preparedness, and shifting power dynamics—and outlined 3-4 potential trajectories for each. While the workshop laid the groundwork for strategic foresight, participants stressed the need for sustained, in-depth efforts at the EU and national levels to prepare for an increasingly unstable world.

IV. European Industrial Decarbonisation and Global Context Scenarios: The two-day workshop in Spain, organised by Insight Foresight Institute, focused on identifying R&I pathways for industrial decarbonization in Europe amid global uncertainties. Aligned with the EU’s net-zero goals, discussions centred on how to enhance competitiveness while transitioning key sectors like energy, manufacturing, and transportation.  Key focuses included advanced heat pump technologies for clean industrial heating and solvolysis for recycling composite materials in sectors like automotive. Discussions highlighted integrating AI, biotech and carbon removal to create smart, climate-positive industrial ecosystems. These innovations aim to support the EU’s net-zero targets while boosting competitiveness through sustainable manufacturing solutions. 

Tetralemma method used in the workshop 'Futures of Science and Conflict via Scenario Development'.

Future topics and upcoming workshops:

The Knowledge of our Civilisation(s) in 2040: it will explore the future knowledge in human civilisation in the face of multiple drivers of change. (Berlin)

Emotion Ecosystems: it will investigate the impact of technologies like affective computing and brain-machine interface on individuals and collectives. (Bucharest)

Democracy and Technology: it will reflect on democratic approaches to risks connected with new technologies and their impacts on various societal groups. (Prague)

Aging and Assisted Living Technologies: it will analyse future ways of integrating smart and digital technologies into assisted living and care for older adults. (Berlin)

Public Policy and Change of Diets: it will reflect on policy inroads into future pathways towards healthy and sustainable diets. (Paris)

New foresight approaches and communities:

The pilot workshops engage 350+ stakeholders in face-to-face sessions across Madrid, Prague, Berlin, and other cities, plus 50-60 online participants, alongside 300-500 respondents in a Delphi consultation. They bring together experts, policymakers, entrepreneurs, and citizens to apply foresight methods on R&I’s role in Europe’s future. Led by Eye of Europe, the workshops aim to build a dialogue-driven community and mobilise collective foresight intelligence. Key outcomes will be compiled in a handbook, with insights shared across all activities. To stay updated, stakeholders can follow Futures4Europe and join the European foresight network.

Further information

European Commission: Horizon Europe – Eye of Europe. Policy Brief Nº 1. “Future Topics for European Research Area” Totti Könnölä and Aaron B. Rosa.

Future events: https://www.futures4europe.eu/pages/event

Acess to policy brief

Future Topics for European Research Area

Scenarios on Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering

The CEO of Insight Foresight Institute, Totti Könnölä, led the team of experts, Albert Norström, Benjamin K. Sovacool, Duncan McLaren, and Sirkku Juhola to develop alternative scenarios for climate mitigation and adaptation. The work was part of the project “Foresight for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2024-2027)” conducted by the Foresight on Demand Consortium. The objective was to synthesise expert insights from the “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering” Deep Dive (June-October 2022), providing strategic intelligence to inform the European Commission’s DG RTD on potential research and innovation (R&I) pathways for climate challenges.

By exploring climate risks, research frontiers, and societal change drivers, the project developed four distinct scenarios for Europe’s climate future towards 2040. The scenarios offer strategic lenses to anticipate possible developments, challenges, and opportunities for European R&I policy. The scenario-building approach identified four core axes shaping future pathways:

Global governance: The degree of international coordination on climate policy.

Sustainable lifestyles: The depth of societal transformation towards low-carbon consumption and living.

Risk acceptance: Societal openness to experimentation with climate innovations, including emerging or controversial technologies.

Activism: The vibrancy and diversity of civic engagement—from formal institutions to disruptive grassroots movements.

The Four Climate Scenarios

1. Sustainable Transition

The EU establishes itself as a global leader in climate policy through robust governance, citizen assemblies, and large-scale adoption of nature-based solutions. Responsible R&I policy guides innovation, supporting transparent frameworks for carbon removal and exporting European climate innovations worldwide. Social engagement is institutionalized, and the precautionary principle is reinterpreted to enable transformative experimentation.

2. Coalition of Sustainable Communities

Here, Europe witnesses a profound decentralization of power, with resilient communities leading the shift away from consumption and ownership towards sharing, cooperation, and connection with nature. Social innovation is driven from the bottom up, and local food and energy systems become central to sustainability. Pluralism, grassroots democracy, and circular economies thrive.

3. Deepening Divisions

An escalation in populism and nationalism leads to fragmentation within Europe and a breakdown of international climate collaboration. Rising inequalities, polarized societies, and ineffective adaptation efforts amplify climate impacts and social unrest. Technology adoption is uneven, and public debate is dominated by misinformation and radical activism.

4. The Technological Fix

This scenario envisions a future where major technology firms and market forces drive climate responses. Europe bets on breakthrough technologies—such as geoengineering, advanced renewables, and large-scale hydrogen—but at the expense of social cohesion and civic engagement. Market mechanisms and tech innovation accelerate, but disparities widen and social innovation lags behind.

Strategic Recommendations for Horizon Europe:
Drawing on these scenarios and trends, the chapter recommends:

Enhancing Resilience: Policies should prioritize flexibility and science-based adaptation to climate uncertainties.

Fostering Inclusivity: R&I programmes must enable dialogue, ethical reflection, and societal engagement on climate solutions.

Integrating Approaches: Combining social innovation with emerging technologies is essential for a just and sustainable transition.

Strengthening Leadership: The EU can lead by example, promoting responsible climate governance and supporting transformative research.

By mapping alternative scenarios and emerging trends, Chapter 5 provides strategic intelligence for Horizon Europe’s 2nd Strategic Plan. The analysis underscores the importance of proactive, inclusive, and forward-looking R&I policies to accelerate climate mitigation and adaptation—securing Europe’s leadership in sustainability for the coming decades.

Further information

Totti Könnölä, Albert Norström, Benjamin K. Sovacool, Duncan McLaren, Sirkku Juhola. “Climate Change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering”, Chapter 5, In European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Foresight on demand – “Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe.”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe – Case Study 2: Climate Change, Research and Innovation

Future Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on European Consumer Behaviour

A project was carried out by the Foresight on Demand consortium, including partners Fraunhofer ISI, ISINNOVA, AIT, FFRC, and Insight Foresight Institute. It presents the results of a foresight exercise on consumer policy toward 2030, focusing on anticipating challenges within the context of the twin transitions (green and digital) and examining both the short- and long-term impacts of the pandemic on consumer behaviour, consumption patterns, and European markets. The aim was to identify and assess future trends and disruptions that will shape consumer policy in this evolving landscape.

The final report, titled “Impact of the Pandemic on European Consumer Behavior,” combines trend analysis, scenario building, and expert input to offer strategic, forward-looking recommendations. Using a STEEPV analysis framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Values-based), the study identifies 29 key drivers of change. Among the most prominent are:

Accelerated digitalization: A rise in e-commerce, digital platforms, and new forms of intermediation.

Shifting risk perception: Increased focus on health, safety, and well-being.

Heightened sustainability awareness: Consumers are more conscious of the social and environmental impacts of their decisions.

Emergence of new inequalities: Digital divides and lack of tech skills have intensified vulnerabilities.

Transformations in employment and mobility: The rise of remote work, redefinition of urban space, and new forms of local leisure and consumption.

Four Future Scenarios for 2030

The report does not aim to predict the future but rather constructs four plausible scenarios to explore the implications of different trajectories:

1. United by a Resilient and Sustainable Society

A model based on equity, green innovation, and multilateral cooperation becomes dominant. Consumption decisions align with collective values, and strong data protection is in place.

2. Green Growth with Rising Inequality

Technological development advances but deepens social divides. Data-driven price personalization becomes standard, while geopolitical and digital tensions escalate.

3. Green Innovation with Inequality Mitigation

Europe achieves a balance between efficiency and fairness. Social innovation, citizen participation, and rural revitalization are promoted.

4. Inequality at the Edge

Marked by social fragmentation, climate emergency, and erosion of consumer rights. Consumption is mediated by dominant platforms and algorithms.

Seven Priorities for a Resilient, Future-Ready Consumer Policy

The findings outline a strategic action framework with seven key areas, aimed at strengthening the New Consumer Agenda:

Smart labeling: Clear, accessible, and comparable information on sustainability, product origin, and lifecycle.
Data spaces for consumption: Secure and ethical infrastructures for data sharing between consumers, businesses, and authorities.
Sustainability by design: Regulations that promote product durability, repairability, and reuse from the manufacturing stage.
Consumer participation: Encourage the co-creation of products and services with users and communities.
Personal data regulation: Clear rules on how personal data is collected, processed, and used in digital environments.
Digital consumer empowerment: Tools that allow users to manage their preferences, rights, and online exposure.
Agile and multi-level governance: Effective coordination among local, national, and European institutions, with the ability to adapt to evolving contexts.

Authors

European Commission: Directorate-General for Justice and Consumers. Simone Kimpeler, Kerstin Cuhls, Charlotte Freudenberg (Fraunhofer ISI), Giovanna Guiffrè, Giorgia Galvini, Andrea Ricci, Loredana Marmora (ISINNOVA), Susanne Giesecke, Dana Wasserbacher (AIT), Sirkka Heinonen, Mikkel Knudsen (FFRC), Totti Könnölä (IFI).

Acess to full report

Foresight on Demand: Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on European Consumer Behaviour – Final Report

Geopolitical & industrial decarbonisation scenarios to identify R&I opportunities for the EU

As part of ‘the Eye of Europe’ Horizon Europe Project, Insight Foresight Institute organised an in-person stakeholder workshop on ‘Geopolitical & industrial decarbonisation scenarios to identify R&I opportunities for the EU’ on 10-11 April 2025 in Madrid, Spain. The event consisted of debating around a primary issue on the EU’s agenda: how to navigate geopolitical issues to keep decarbonising the continent towards sustainable and competitive sectors.

The workshop gathered more than 30 experts specialised in different areas related to circular economy, decarbonisation, sustainability, innovation, geopolitics etc. The objective was to use foresight methods (scenarios and roadmaps) in order to plan different strategies to navigate industrial decarbonisation. For that matter, three different small groups were created:

Energy Security and Supply moderated by Attila Havas.
Critical Raw Materials moderated by Totti Könnölä.
Manufacturing in Hard-to-Abate Sectors moderated by Karl-Heinz Leitner.

Participants attended this two-day workshop which started with introductory presentations by experts from public institutions such as the European Commission or the Spanish Ministry of Industry. Once participants were put into context, the common scenario work began in the mentioned small groups. The second day, the debate was focused on roadmpaping for R&I needs and emerging areas. The findings and conclusions were gathered in the final plenary and will soon be published on a report.

The dynamic teamwork carried out by participants with such different backgrounds allowed to gather diverse outcomes from the exercise. The decarbonisation process of the European industry has already begun, and it is crucial to consider every factor in order to apply the adequate strategies. From the Insight Foresight Institute’s team we would like to thank all the participants that attended those two days to debate about the future of the decarbonisation process in Europe.

After the New Normal: Scenarios for Europe in the Post Covid-19 World

The team of Insight Foresight Institute developed this study alongside experts from Fraunhofer ISI and AIT. The study examined five alternative scenarios for Europe in 2040 emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic’s disruption, focusing on their implications for EU research and innovation policy. The aim was to analyze how the pandemic’s amplification of global uncertainties might reshape long-term R&I priorities, and to provide policymakers with strategic perspectives on potential post-crisis evolution paths.

Based on extensive literature review and expert workshops, the study outlines five scenarios reflecting divergent futures shaped by the pandemic’s long-term effects on research, innovation, and social resilience. Rather than predicting a single outcome, these scenarios serve as strategic narratives to stimulate policy reflection and guide future decisions, exploring a range of possibilities in economic recovery, political cohesion, and societal transformation.

The five scenarios include:

Long Recession – Europe faces sustained economic stagnation, rising nationalism, and shrinking public R&I investments.
Back to ‘Normal’ – Attempts to return to pre-pandemic normalcy led to institutional stagnation.
Techno-Feudal Europe – Technological power concentrates in private hands, weakening democratic oversight.
Circular trials and real-life errors scenario – Economic model based on sharing, leasing, reuse, repair, refurbish and recycling in an (almost) closed loop.
Green Utopia – A transformation towards equity and ecological sustainability through coordinated green transitions.

The authors outline the core methodology, including horizon scanning and scenario-building. It positions research and innovation (R&I) as central levers for navigating uncertainty and advancing EU objectives. Emphasizing the need for:

Control over technological development.
Resilience, adaptability and crisis preparedness for times of crises.
The key role of education.
EU level financing for R&I.
Regional disparities in R&I performance.
Defining future priorities in R&I policy.

The report concludes with a call to reimagine Europe’s future beyond recovery—to build a more inclusive, forward-looking, and resilient Union. It recognizes that Covid-19 was not merely a crisis, but a pivotal moment to reshape the trajectories of European integration, innovation, and sustainability.

Authors

European Commission. Dictorate-General for Research and Innovation – Kerstin Cuhls (coordination, Fraunhofer ISI), Aaron Rosa (Fraunhofer ISI), Matthias Weber (AIT), Susanne Giesecke (AIT), Dana Wasserbacher (AIT), Totti Könnölä (IFI).

Acess to full report

After the new normal: Scenarios for Europe in the post Covid-19 world. A Foresight on Demand Project.