Energy and Environment – Page 2 – Insight Foresight Institute

European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe

Insight Foresight Institute coordinated this Foresight on Demand project for DG RTD. It aimed at providing timely foresight intelligence and forward-looking policy briefs to the European Commission for purposes of R&I policy on the following topics:

Futures of Civic Resilience
Futures of Green Skills and Jobs
Futures of innovation and IP regulation
Futures of Science for Policy in Europe
Futures of Using Nature in Rural and Marine Contexts in Europe

This project aimed at:

Providing timely foresight intelligence and forward-looking policy briefs to the European Commission for purposes of R&I policy on the mentioned topics.
Providing a hub for Europe’s R&I foresight community and a space in which foresight agencies and researchers can share knowledge and tools.
Networking EU-supported R&I projects with important foresight elements and promoting their results to policymakers, including via Horizon Futures Watch quarterly newsletters.
Promoting broad public engagement with foresight for R&I policy, including stakeholders as well as the public and covering all sections of society, from scientists and engineers to policy-makers, artists, intellectuals and engaged citizens.

Further information

“European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe”. In European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation.

Acess to project information

European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe

Futures4Europe Platform

Foresight on Hydrogen Economy – Envisioning a Radical Alternative

The CEO of Insight Foresight Institute, Totti Könnölä, participated in the foresight exercise on the future of hydrogen economy within the project “Foresight for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2024-2027)” conducted by the Foresight on Demand Consortium”, alongside Ullrich Lorenz, Rainer Quitzow, Peter Lund, Elisabeth Dütschke and Anne Kantel, Corina Murafa, and Mike Parr. The foresight exercise examined potential configurations of a hydrogen-abundant European energy system in 2040, analyzing how different global political, economic, and social contexts could shape hydrogen’s role in the continent’s energy transition. The aim was to assess hydrogen technologies’ potential to enable full decarbonization of Europe’s economy. A morphological scenario approach was used as a foresight method.

The Four Scenarios on the Hydrogen Economy

I. United States of Europe – Circularity with High Tech: Europe is highly integrated and governed as a federal union. A sustainability-first mindset drives policy and industrial transformation. The hydrogen economy is advanced, autonomous, and based on high-efficiency technologies like solid oxide electrolysis (SOEC). Energy and material circularity reduce dependence on imports, while European hydrogen innovations are globally exported.

II. Forced Sustainability – Circularity Based on Frugality: In a fragmented global order, Europe turns inward, prioritizing resilience and ecological reforms. Localized, low-tech renewable systems support self-sufficiency. Hydrogen is used at the community level for energy buffering, but infrastructure is modest. Frugality and simplicity define lifestyles and industrial production.

III. Private Companies Rule: Large tech corporations dominate global governance and energy systems. The hydrogen economy is expansive, driven by efficiency and private investment. Renewables and hydrogen supply nearly all energy needs, and storage is scaled for full autonomy. Yet, social inequality grows and democratic oversight diminishes.

IV. Green Deal for Europe – A Western-led World: The EU remains a global leader in climate and technology, though internal political processes remain slow. Hydrogen technologies flourish through international partnerships and massive R&I investment. The continent is largely energy self-sufficient, supported by large-scale renewables, advanced storage systems, and intensive hydrogen trade.

Strategic Insights for Research & Innovation Policy

Hydrogen plays three strategic roles: replacing fossil fuels, enabling synthetic fuels, and stabilizing renewable-based grids.

Transition challenges include technology scale-up, overcoming legacy systems, and managing geopolitical shifts.

R&I policy must balance decentralised autonomy with coordinated EU-wide standards and infrastructures.

Special attention is needed to avoid regional disparities and energy poverty during the transition.

Access to critical raw materials, carbon cycles, and circularity in chemical and industrial production are key R&I fronts.

R&I Recommendations:

Smart, pan-European grid systems

Next-generation electrolysis and fuel cells

Hydrogen storage innovations

Long-range transport applications

Carbon capture and usage

Societal impacts, affordability, and decentralised solutions

This strategic foresight contributes to guiding Horizon Europe’s next steps in hydrogen-based sustainable economy, ensuring Europe leads in the development of a clean, resilient, and equitable energy system.

Further information

Ullrich Lorenz, Rainer Quitzow, Peter Lund, Elisabeth Dütschke, Anne Kantel, Corina Murafa, Mike Parr, Totti Könnölä. Chapter 6: Hydrogen Economy – A Radical Alternative. In European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Foresight on demand – “Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe – Chapter 6: Hydrogen Economy

Foresight Case Study on Land Use Futures in Europe and Beyond

Insight Foresight Institute’s CEO Totti Könnölä, alongside Philine Warnke, led a Case Study, called “Land Use Futures” which explored how a strong focus on ecosystem flourishing could change the current thinking about land use competition. The study was part of the Foresight on Demand project ‘S&T&I for 2050: Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions’ for the European Commission DG RTD.

Status Quo and System Change Analysis

The dynamics of change in global land use are explored from diverse perspectives. After briefly exploring the current distribution of land use, the focus moved to dynamic changes in ecosystems. These aspects are: de- and re-deforestation, land use for agriculture, land degradation, biofuel land use, land use for renewable energy, land use by mining and quarrying, land grab from rich to poor, and land health as an underlying driver of global pandemics, rewilding, land use for tourism, urban sprawl versus densification, floor space per person, human scale city planning and debate around public space ownership and publicness.

Scenarios

Building on the analysis of the dynamic changes of land use, the experts developed three alternative scenarios for the future of land use.

Efficiency and optimisation of land use – Scenario P1: This scenario builds on the current trend of heavy exploitation of the land and it emphasises the optimal use of ecosystem services, especially using land for ensuring maximum production of food and other natural products and resources. Accordingly, land across the EU would be matched to the most appropriate use considering Europe in a globalised world with intensive movement of goods, capital, services and people.

Towards Effective Multiple Use of Land – Scenario P2: In this scenario, society’s needs are met regionally in a coherent relationship between people and their resources. In this less globalised economy, there is a move towards regional autonomy. A Europe that has a greater appreciation of the resources that are available regionally and of the value of trying to live without external inputs, with the help of technological developments. Serving the regional population and keeping regional coherence are key priorities. This reduces the need for transportation and its negative effects. This scenario builds on emerging practices spinning around multiple land use, which refers to the use of land for more than one purpose, for example, grazing of livestock, recreation and timber production.

Land use adapting to nature – Scenario P3: This scenario has emerged after a series of crises and system breakdowns in the context of the climate catastrophe. The economic, social and physical repercussions have halted economic growth and led to a reduction of life expectancy and shrinking of human population. As a means of survival humans are forced to seriously engage with ecosystems. In doing so they are building on the one hand on elements from Indigenous legal thinking about land such as property as “curation”, property as making kin, property as reconciliation, counselling with nature and on the other on early initiatives such as recognising rights of ecosystems or the forming of the “Loire Parliament”.

STI Conclusions

This case study examined three land use scenarios, revealing key trade-offs between efficiency and sustainability. The single-use approach maximises localised efficiency but risks ecosystem harm by ignoring systemic impacts. Multiple-use requires significant learning to integrate diverse practices across urban/rural contexts, while the immersive approach aligns with nature-based solutions and indigenous knowledge. The analysis highlights a necessary evolution: from P1’s land-efficient innovation (exploitative) to P2’s multi-functional use and ultimately P3’s nature-positive adaptation (symbiotic). These scenarios frame a crucial paradigm shift – moving from human-centric land exploitation to nature-adaptive relationships.

Further information

Totti Könnölä and Philine Warnke. Case Study 2: Land Use Futures. In European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Klaus Kubeczko, Project Coordination, Michael Bernstein, Dana Wasserbacher, Beatrix Wepner, Philine Warnke, Totti Könnölä, Liviu Andreescu, Bianca Dragomir, Radu Cristian Gheorghiu, Carlo Sessa, Daniel Cassolà, Žilvinas Martinaitis – “S&T&I for 2050 Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance- Accelerating Sustainability Transitions”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

S&T&I for 2050 Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance- Accelerating Sustainability Transitions.

Scenarios on Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering

The CEO of Insight Foresight Institute, Totti Könnölä, led the team of experts, Albert Norström, Benjamin K. Sovacool, Duncan McLaren, and Sirkku Juhola to develop alternative scenarios for climate mitigation and adaptation. The work was part of the project “Foresight for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2024-2027)” conducted by the Foresight on Demand Consortium. The objective was to synthesise expert insights from the “Climate change and R&I: from social change to geoengineering” Deep Dive (June-October 2022), providing strategic intelligence to inform the European Commission’s DG RTD on potential research and innovation (R&I) pathways for climate challenges.

By exploring climate risks, research frontiers, and societal change drivers, the project developed four distinct scenarios for Europe’s climate future towards 2040. The scenarios offer strategic lenses to anticipate possible developments, challenges, and opportunities for European R&I policy. The scenario-building approach identified four core axes shaping future pathways:

Global governance: The degree of international coordination on climate policy.

Sustainable lifestyles: The depth of societal transformation towards low-carbon consumption and living.

Risk acceptance: Societal openness to experimentation with climate innovations, including emerging or controversial technologies.

Activism: The vibrancy and diversity of civic engagement—from formal institutions to disruptive grassroots movements.

The Four Climate Scenarios

1. Sustainable Transition

The EU establishes itself as a global leader in climate policy through robust governance, citizen assemblies, and large-scale adoption of nature-based solutions. Responsible R&I policy guides innovation, supporting transparent frameworks for carbon removal and exporting European climate innovations worldwide. Social engagement is institutionalized, and the precautionary principle is reinterpreted to enable transformative experimentation.

2. Coalition of Sustainable Communities

Here, Europe witnesses a profound decentralization of power, with resilient communities leading the shift away from consumption and ownership towards sharing, cooperation, and connection with nature. Social innovation is driven from the bottom up, and local food and energy systems become central to sustainability. Pluralism, grassroots democracy, and circular economies thrive.

3. Deepening Divisions

An escalation in populism and nationalism leads to fragmentation within Europe and a breakdown of international climate collaboration. Rising inequalities, polarized societies, and ineffective adaptation efforts amplify climate impacts and social unrest. Technology adoption is uneven, and public debate is dominated by misinformation and radical activism.

4. The Technological Fix

This scenario envisions a future where major technology firms and market forces drive climate responses. Europe bets on breakthrough technologies—such as geoengineering, advanced renewables, and large-scale hydrogen—but at the expense of social cohesion and civic engagement. Market mechanisms and tech innovation accelerate, but disparities widen and social innovation lags behind.

Strategic Recommendations for Horizon Europe:
Drawing on these scenarios and trends, the chapter recommends:

Enhancing Resilience: Policies should prioritize flexibility and science-based adaptation to climate uncertainties.

Fostering Inclusivity: R&I programmes must enable dialogue, ethical reflection, and societal engagement on climate solutions.

Integrating Approaches: Combining social innovation with emerging technologies is essential for a just and sustainable transition.

Strengthening Leadership: The EU can lead by example, promoting responsible climate governance and supporting transformative research.

By mapping alternative scenarios and emerging trends, Chapter 5 provides strategic intelligence for Horizon Europe’s 2nd Strategic Plan. The analysis underscores the importance of proactive, inclusive, and forward-looking R&I policies to accelerate climate mitigation and adaptation—securing Europe’s leadership in sustainability for the coming decades.

Further information

Totti Könnölä, Albert Norström, Benjamin K. Sovacool, Duncan McLaren, Sirkku Juhola. “Climate Change, Research, and Innovation: Radical Options from Social Change to Geoengineering”, Chapter 5, In European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Foresight on demand – “Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe.”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe – Case Study 2: Climate Change, Research and Innovation

Foresight for Preparing the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe

The team of Insight Foresight Institute participated in this project of the Foresight on Demand consortium, alongside a variety of experts and institutions that collaborate with the European Commission. Given the length of the study, Inisght Foresight Institute collaborated specifically on Chapter 5 (participating) and Chapter 6 (leading).

The report delivered a foresight study to inform the Horizon Europe Strategic Plan (2025-2027) through early-stage strategic intelligence, featuring future scenarios, analyses of disruptive trends, and stakeholder engagement activities. The aim was to identify emerging issues, trends, and perspectives that could introduce novel elements to strategic planning processes, while capturing challenges, opportunities, and public proposals for Horizon Europe’s future orientation.

For instance, the study outlined six multi-level context scenarios that combine different global perspectives – from collaborative to hostile – with contrasting EU conditions (resilient vs vulnerable). These scenarios serve as possible “playing fields” for EU research and innovation policy.

Key Insights:

Eleven disruptive areas were analyzed, including Artificial General Intelligence, transhumanism, climate change, global governance, hydrogen economy, and new societal value shifts.

These were grouped into four clusters: global landscape, technology & society, society & nature, and social/value transformations.

Expert surveys and scenario-building revealed future R&I policy needs.

Strategic Implications:

EU leadership: Europe must strengthen its technological and industrial positioning while contributing to global commons and responsible governance.

Resilience: Policies must anticipate crises—whether environmental, health-related, social or geopolitical—through agile, science-based responses.

Reflexivity & ethics: Frontier topics (e.g., geoengineering, human enhancement, AI) require early and inclusive societal debate.

Nature-society balance: R&I must address not just technological goals but also redefine humanity’s relationship with ecosystems.

Open and adaptive instruments: EU research programmes need greater openness, flexibility, and rapid feedback mechanisms to remain effective under uncertainty.

Global partnerships: The EU should combine strategic alliances with global rule-setting in areas such as AI, climate, and sustainability.

This foresight effort offers not only a vision for Horizon Europe, but a foundation for a more resilient, inclusive and forward-looking R&I ecosystem in Europe—capable of addressing both today’s challenges and tomorrow’s unknowns.

More information

European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Foresight on demand – “Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe” – Foresight, Weber, M.(editor), Wasserbacher, D.(editor) and Kastrinos, N.(editor), Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

Foresight on Demand: Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe