News – Insight Foresight Institute

Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe in 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications

Insight Foresight Institute participated in the project “Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe in 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. The report examined the transformative impact of the green transition on the EU labour market, alongside digitalisation and automation, through a set of future scenarios for green technological leadership and socio-techncal transitions in Europe.

Scenario A – Green technology-intensive Europe, struggling to fill all the green jobs. The European Union has advanced in a green transition across society and has gained global leadership in green technologies, resulting from aligned efforts.

Scenario B – Apocalypse soon, fighting skills mismatches in a degraded environment. After failed climate policy efforts, a sharp deterioration of the climate and the multiplication of extreme natural-related events, the environment is in a critical state in Europe and globally.

Scenario C – Feeling the pain, a workface left behind in a non-green world. This scenario represents increasing environmental pressures from man-made climate change that have not been effectively addressed over the past decades.

Scenario D – Green leapfrogging, old Europe surrounded by new green giants. In 2050, third countries and regions have leapfrogged leaving Europe behind. The world has seen geopolitical shifts, but also an improved environment.

Each of the four depicted futures stimulated further discussion on multiple implications for current R&I policy, and collectively gave rise to the following conclusions:

There will be no green transition without a strong, vocational education and training (VET) skills base.

The shared understanding of what green means is reconfigured over time.

The talent base for green skills must be expanded.

Green development paths are shaped by emerging technologies; emerging technologies should also be shaped by green skills.

Based on this work, INRS and other European experts were invited to participate in a foresight network focusing on green skills and jobs in Europe by 2050. The article “L’Avenir des Compétences et des Emplois Verts en Europe en 2050: Scénario et Implications Politiques; Conséquences pour la Prévention des Risques Professionnels’” presents a summary of the discussion.

Additional information

Mikkel Knudsen, Marjolein Caniëls, Peter Dickinson, Michel Hery, Heila Lotz-Sisitka and Totti Könnölä. “Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe in 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Acess to full reports

Futures of Green Skills and Jobs in Europe in 2050: Scenarios and Policy Implications

L’Avenir des Compétences et des Emplois Verts en Europe en 2050: Scénario et Implications Politiques; Conséquences pour la Prévention des Risques Professionnels

Futures of Innovation and Intellectual Property Regulation in 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications

Insight Foresight Institute participated in the project “Futures of Innovation and IP Regulation 2040”. The project explored how evolving dimensions of innovation could reshape intellectual property regimen by 2040 and their societal impacts, with a focus on implications for European research and innovation policy.

The work was part of the larger platform project named “European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe” for the European Commission, coordinated by Totti Könnölä, the CEO of Insight Foresight Institute and implemented by the Foresight on Demand consortium. The following five scenario narratives from 2040 are the result of the work in the scenario workshop and the subsequent internal discussions of the expert team:

Scenario 1: The end of IP as we know it. By 2040, the digitalisation of the economy has been completed in all sectors. The private interests of platform companies drive the collection of lots of data, which is the main source of IP.

Scenario 2: ‘Creative destruction’ of the IP regime. In 2040, the scenario is driven by the private interests of big companies in computing, ICT, medical devices, machinery and pharma which are located in the Global North and which are experienced players in the intellectual property system.

Scenario 3: IP as a battlefield of geopolitics. In the context of rising geopolitical tensions, IP has become an instrument for different regions to protect their commercial interests, complementing their trade strategies. Europe focuses on granting high-quality patents.

Scenario 4: Global and balanced IP for open innovation. Following a series of extreme weather events, health crises and wars, the achievement and implementation of science-based innovative solutions to global challenges is a key policy priority. Ips serve their main purpose by defining the boundaries of the inventions.

Scenario 5: Open-source collaboration globalized innovation. By 2040, the IPR regimes for physical and information goods have diverged and are by and large disjunct. Open-source collaboration dominates innovation of digital and other intangible goods.

Throughout these five scenarios, policy implications are elaborated. Since IPRs are only an instrument to foster and direct innovation, implications for R&D and innovation policy need to be elaborated as much as the role of IPRs in achieving the SDGs, particularly in tackling climate change.

Additional information

Knut Blind, Mirko Böhm, Catalina Martínez, Andrea Renda, Claudia Tapia, Nikolaus Thumm, Matthias Weber and Totti Könnölä. “Futures of Innovation and Intellectual Property Regulation in 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Acess to full report

Futures of Innovation and Intellectual Property Regulation in 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications

European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe

Insight Foresight Institute coordinated this Foresight on Demand project for DG RTD. It aimed at providing timely foresight intelligence and forward-looking policy briefs to the European Commission for purposes of R&I policy on the following topics:

Futures of Civic Resilience
Futures of Green Skills and Jobs
Futures of innovation and IP regulation
Futures of Science for Policy in Europe
Futures of Using Nature in Rural and Marine Contexts in Europe

This project aimed at:

Providing timely foresight intelligence and forward-looking policy briefs to the European Commission for purposes of R&I policy on the mentioned topics.
Providing a hub for Europe’s R&I foresight community and a space in which foresight agencies and researchers can share knowledge and tools.
Networking EU-supported R&I projects with important foresight elements and promoting their results to policymakers, including via Horizon Futures Watch quarterly newsletters.
Promoting broad public engagement with foresight for R&I policy, including stakeholders as well as the public and covering all sections of society, from scientists and engineers to policy-makers, artists, intellectuals and engaged citizens.

Further information

“European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe”. In European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation.

Acess to project information

European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe

Futures4Europe Platform

Futures of Civic Resilience in Europe – 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications

Insight Foresight Institute participated in the Foresight on Demand consortium studying “Futures of Civic Resilience in Europe – 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. The study developed a policy brief exploring four possible future scenarios for 2040 and their implications for current decision-making. Also, recommendations for R&I policy measures were defined to address any given social effect. The work was part of the larger platform project named “European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe” for the European Commission, coordinated by Totti Könnölä, the CEO of Insight Foresight Institute.

The brief outlines the major societal challenges which are changing the landscape of the European Union. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the instability of the economy and the difficulty of the EU to respond to it have contributed to the lack of trust among citizens. The report considers civic resilience as the ability of a community to prepare and adapt to adversities. It calls for local commitment, preparedness beyond the support of the public administration and the private sector.

Futures of Civic Resilience in Europe develops four alternative scenarios with the aim of helping policymakers prepare for future crises and strengthen the resilience of civic society today. The scenarios are identified around two main axes (technological & economic adaptation and social & environmental stewardship):

1st scenario: both axes are high, it is denominated as the ideal future. Low levels of community and individual resilience, civic society would not be ready to face an unexpected event.

2nd scenario: techno-economic adaptation is low, but socio-environmental stewardship is high. Institutional void, but strong community consensus, which means that citizens are subordinate to the collective, and there is a low level of individual resilience.

3rd scenario: high techno-economic adaptation meets low socio-environmental stewardship. It represents a risk to the social fabric due to the omnipresence of technology. In a homogenised alienated society where social institutions are annulled, the only possible resistance may come from the individuals.

4th scenario: it is regarded as the worst-case scenario, where both axes are low. It would be a radical context where both community and individual resilience may be high because hostile environments reinforce the survival instinct.

Keeping in mind the unpredictability of the social effects of technology and the importance of public services and local actors for civic resilience, it is important to engage broadly with actors responsible for public services in the definition of R&I policy agendas. Thus, R&I measures could:

Stimulate a radical social innovation through “glocal” (local but with global impact) creative initiatives.

Identify and define boundaries for upcoming cutting-edge technologies implantation, prioritizing social stability and welfare.

Define agendas in resilience research, oriented to explore new potential needs and new ways of addressing existing needs.

Make existing public services more effective and resilient, for instance, via education and health.

The study highlights that in addition to R&I agendas, civic resilience can be strengthened by improving governance, local democracy, public services and education policies.

Further information

Enric Bas, Kezia Barker, Carsten Claus, Louise McHugh, Florian Roth and Totti Könnölä. “Futures of Civic Resilience in Europe – 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Acess to full report

Futures of Civic Resilience in Europe – 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications

Foresight Case Study on Land Use Futures in Europe and Beyond

Insight Foresight Institute’s CEO Totti Könnölä, alongside Philine Warnke, led a Case Study, called “Land Use Futures” which explored how a strong focus on ecosystem flourishing could change the current thinking about land use competition. The study was part of the Foresight on Demand project ‘S&T&I for 2050: Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions’ for the European Commission DG RTD.

Status Quo and System Change Analysis

The dynamics of change in global land use are explored from diverse perspectives. After briefly exploring the current distribution of land use, the focus moved to dynamic changes in ecosystems. These aspects are: de- and re-deforestation, land use for agriculture, land degradation, biofuel land use, land use for renewable energy, land use by mining and quarrying, land grab from rich to poor, and land health as an underlying driver of global pandemics, rewilding, land use for tourism, urban sprawl versus densification, floor space per person, human scale city planning and debate around public space ownership and publicness.

Scenarios

Building on the analysis of the dynamic changes of land use, the experts developed three alternative scenarios for the future of land use.

Efficiency and optimisation of land use – Scenario P1: This scenario builds on the current trend of heavy exploitation of the land and it emphasises the optimal use of ecosystem services, especially using land for ensuring maximum production of food and other natural products and resources. Accordingly, land across the EU would be matched to the most appropriate use considering Europe in a globalised world with intensive movement of goods, capital, services and people.

Towards Effective Multiple Use of Land – Scenario P2: In this scenario, society’s needs are met regionally in a coherent relationship between people and their resources. In this less globalised economy, there is a move towards regional autonomy. A Europe that has a greater appreciation of the resources that are available regionally and of the value of trying to live without external inputs, with the help of technological developments. Serving the regional population and keeping regional coherence are key priorities. This reduces the need for transportation and its negative effects. This scenario builds on emerging practices spinning around multiple land use, which refers to the use of land for more than one purpose, for example, grazing of livestock, recreation and timber production.

Land use adapting to nature – Scenario P3: This scenario has emerged after a series of crises and system breakdowns in the context of the climate catastrophe. The economic, social and physical repercussions have halted economic growth and led to a reduction of life expectancy and shrinking of human population. As a means of survival humans are forced to seriously engage with ecosystems. In doing so they are building on the one hand on elements from Indigenous legal thinking about land such as property as “curation”, property as making kin, property as reconciliation, counselling with nature and on the other on early initiatives such as recognising rights of ecosystems or the forming of the “Loire Parliament”.

STI Conclusions

This case study examined three land use scenarios, revealing key trade-offs between efficiency and sustainability. The single-use approach maximises localised efficiency but risks ecosystem harm by ignoring systemic impacts. Multiple-use requires significant learning to integrate diverse practices across urban/rural contexts, while the immersive approach aligns with nature-based solutions and indigenous knowledge. The analysis highlights a necessary evolution: from P1’s land-efficient innovation (exploitative) to P2’s multi-functional use and ultimately P3’s nature-positive adaptation (symbiotic). These scenarios frame a crucial paradigm shift – moving from human-centric land exploitation to nature-adaptive relationships.

Further information

Totti Könnölä and Philine Warnke. Case Study 2: Land Use Futures. In European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Klaus Kubeczko, Project Coordination, Michael Bernstein, Dana Wasserbacher, Beatrix Wepner, Philine Warnke, Totti Könnölä, Liviu Andreescu, Bianca Dragomir, Radu Cristian Gheorghiu, Carlo Sessa, Daniel Cassolà, Žilvinas Martinaitis – “S&T&I for 2050 Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance- Accelerating Sustainability Transitions”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

S&T&I for 2050 Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance- Accelerating Sustainability Transitions.