Policymakers – Page 2 – Insight Foresight Institute

Scenarios on Accelerating Transitions towards Regenerative Economy

Insight Foresight Institute’s CEO Totti Könnölä, alongside Carlo Sessa and Daniel Cassolà, led the Case Study of the project S&T&I 2050 conducted by the Foresight on Demand consortium for the European Commission DGRTD. The Case Study, called “Accelerating transitions to regenerative economy”, explored how to support the socio-economic transformation of production and consumption systems towards a new model of regenerative economy, ensuring prosperity and human well-being for all, and a healthy planet, through science, technology and innovation.

The study elaborates scenarios of possible evolution towards different forms of regenerative economy, using the Tree Horizon scenario framework. Additionally, each scenario is coupled with the different ecosystems’ stewardship perspectives:

Horizon 1, eco-efficient market: limit environmental degradation by means of new eco-efficient technologies. Coupled with protecting and restoring socio-ecological systems.

Horizon 2, circular economy: is presented as a possible pathway between Horizon 1 and Horizon 3. Coupled with co-shaping socio-ecological systems.

Horizon 3, symbiotic economy: conversion of the current economy into a radically different symbiotic economy model. Coupled with immersing and caring within hybrid collectives.

The study also considers the concept of regenerative economy as the next stage of evolution of capitalism. This concept assumes that economic vigour is a product of human and societal vitality, rooted in ecological health and the inclusive development of human capabilities. Thus:

Acts in ways that support the long-term health of the whole society.

Sees economic and financial health as inseparable from human, societal and environmental health.

Values richness and diversity, integrity and fairness.

Responds to the full gamut of human needs, adapting to circumstances and constantly evolving to more efficient levels of organization.

The conventional neoliberal and Keynesian economics use GDP to measure economic health, this is, a tool that only measures goods and services produced nationally. In contrast, the case study defends regenerative economics, which seek the development of healthy human networks embedded in healthy societies and the biosphere as the goal.

Further information

Totti Könnölä, Carlo Sessa and Daniel Cassolà “Case Study 4: Accelerating transitions to regenerative economy”. In European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Klaus Kubeczko, Project Coordination, Michael Bernstein, Dana Wasserbacher, Beatrix Wepner, Philine Warnke, Totti Könnölä, Liviu Andreescu, Bianca Dragomir, Radu Cristian Gheorghiu, Carlo Sessa, Daniel Cassolà, Žilvinas Martinaitis – “S&T&I for 2050 Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance- Accelerating Sustainability Transitions. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

S&T&I for 2050 Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance- Accelerating Sustainability Transitions.

European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe

Insight Foresight Institute coordinated this Foresight on Demand project for DG RTD. It aimed at providing timely foresight intelligence and forward-looking policy briefs to the European Commission for purposes of R&I policy on the following topics:

Futures of Civic Resilience
Futures of Green Skills and Jobs
Futures of innovation and IP regulation
Futures of Science for Policy in Europe
Futures of Using Nature in Rural and Marine Contexts in Europe

This project aimed at:

Providing timely foresight intelligence and forward-looking policy briefs to the European Commission for purposes of R&I policy on the mentioned topics.
Providing a hub for Europe’s R&I foresight community and a space in which foresight agencies and researchers can share knowledge and tools.
Networking EU-supported R&I projects with important foresight elements and promoting their results to policymakers, including via Horizon Futures Watch quarterly newsletters.
Promoting broad public engagement with foresight for R&I policy, including stakeholders as well as the public and covering all sections of society, from scientists and engineers to policy-makers, artists, intellectuals and engaged citizens.

Further information

“European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe”. In European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation.

Acess to project information

European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe

Futures4Europe Platform

Futures of Civic Resilience in Europe – 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications

Insight Foresight Institute participated in the Foresight on Demand consortium studying “Futures of Civic Resilience in Europe – 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. The study developed a policy brief exploring four possible future scenarios for 2040 and their implications for current decision-making. Also, recommendations for R&I policy measures were defined to address any given social effect. The work was part of the larger platform project named “European R&I Foresight and Public Engagement for Horizon Europe” for the European Commission, coordinated by Totti Könnölä, the CEO of Insight Foresight Institute.

The brief outlines the major societal challenges which are changing the landscape of the European Union. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the instability of the economy and the difficulty of the EU to respond to it have contributed to the lack of trust among citizens. The report considers civic resilience as the ability of a community to prepare and adapt to adversities. It calls for local commitment, preparedness beyond the support of the public administration and the private sector.

Futures of Civic Resilience in Europe develops four alternative scenarios with the aim of helping policymakers prepare for future crises and strengthen the resilience of civic society today. The scenarios are identified around two main axes (technological & economic adaptation and social & environmental stewardship):

1st scenario: both axes are high, it is denominated as the ideal future. Low levels of community and individual resilience, civic society would not be ready to face an unexpected event.

2nd scenario: techno-economic adaptation is low, but socio-environmental stewardship is high. Institutional void, but strong community consensus, which means that citizens are subordinate to the collective, and there is a low level of individual resilience.

3rd scenario: high techno-economic adaptation meets low socio-environmental stewardship. It represents a risk to the social fabric due to the omnipresence of technology. In a homogenised alienated society where social institutions are annulled, the only possible resistance may come from the individuals.

4th scenario: it is regarded as the worst-case scenario, where both axes are low. It would be a radical context where both community and individual resilience may be high because hostile environments reinforce the survival instinct.

Keeping in mind the unpredictability of the social effects of technology and the importance of public services and local actors for civic resilience, it is important to engage broadly with actors responsible for public services in the definition of R&I policy agendas. Thus, R&I measures could:

Stimulate a radical social innovation through “glocal” (local but with global impact) creative initiatives.

Identify and define boundaries for upcoming cutting-edge technologies implantation, prioritizing social stability and welfare.

Define agendas in resilience research, oriented to explore new potential needs and new ways of addressing existing needs.

Make existing public services more effective and resilient, for instance, via education and health.

The study highlights that in addition to R&I agendas, civic resilience can be strengthened by improving governance, local democracy, public services and education policies.

Further information

Enric Bas, Kezia Barker, Carsten Claus, Louise McHugh, Florian Roth and Totti Könnölä. “Futures of Civic Resilience in Europe – 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2024.

Acess to full report

Futures of Civic Resilience in Europe – 2040: Scenarios and Policy Implications

Foresight on Hydrogen Economy – Envisioning a Radical Alternative

The CEO of Insight Foresight Institute, Totti Könnölä, participated in the foresight exercise on the future of hydrogen economy within the project “Foresight for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2024-2027)” conducted by the Foresight on Demand Consortium”, alongside Ullrich Lorenz, Rainer Quitzow, Peter Lund, Elisabeth Dütschke and Anne Kantel, Corina Murafa, and Mike Parr. The foresight exercise examined potential configurations of a hydrogen-abundant European energy system in 2040, analyzing how different global political, economic, and social contexts could shape hydrogen’s role in the continent’s energy transition. The aim was to assess hydrogen technologies’ potential to enable full decarbonization of Europe’s economy. A morphological scenario approach was used as a foresight method.

The Four Scenarios on the Hydrogen Economy

I. United States of Europe – Circularity with High Tech: Europe is highly integrated and governed as a federal union. A sustainability-first mindset drives policy and industrial transformation. The hydrogen economy is advanced, autonomous, and based on high-efficiency technologies like solid oxide electrolysis (SOEC). Energy and material circularity reduce dependence on imports, while European hydrogen innovations are globally exported.

II. Forced Sustainability – Circularity Based on Frugality: In a fragmented global order, Europe turns inward, prioritizing resilience and ecological reforms. Localized, low-tech renewable systems support self-sufficiency. Hydrogen is used at the community level for energy buffering, but infrastructure is modest. Frugality and simplicity define lifestyles and industrial production.

III. Private Companies Rule: Large tech corporations dominate global governance and energy systems. The hydrogen economy is expansive, driven by efficiency and private investment. Renewables and hydrogen supply nearly all energy needs, and storage is scaled for full autonomy. Yet, social inequality grows and democratic oversight diminishes.

IV. Green Deal for Europe – A Western-led World: The EU remains a global leader in climate and technology, though internal political processes remain slow. Hydrogen technologies flourish through international partnerships and massive R&I investment. The continent is largely energy self-sufficient, supported by large-scale renewables, advanced storage systems, and intensive hydrogen trade.

Strategic Insights for Research & Innovation Policy

Hydrogen plays three strategic roles: replacing fossil fuels, enabling synthetic fuels, and stabilizing renewable-based grids.

Transition challenges include technology scale-up, overcoming legacy systems, and managing geopolitical shifts.

R&I policy must balance decentralised autonomy with coordinated EU-wide standards and infrastructures.

Special attention is needed to avoid regional disparities and energy poverty during the transition.

Access to critical raw materials, carbon cycles, and circularity in chemical and industrial production are key R&I fronts.

R&I Recommendations:

Smart, pan-European grid systems

Next-generation electrolysis and fuel cells

Hydrogen storage innovations

Long-range transport applications

Carbon capture and usage

Societal impacts, affordability, and decentralised solutions

This strategic foresight contributes to guiding Horizon Europe’s next steps in hydrogen-based sustainable economy, ensuring Europe leads in the development of a clean, resilient, and equitable energy system.

Further information

Ullrich Lorenz, Rainer Quitzow, Peter Lund, Elisabeth Dütschke, Anne Kantel, Corina Murafa, Mike Parr, Totti Könnölä. Chapter 6: Hydrogen Economy – A Radical Alternative. In European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Foresight on demand – “Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe – Chapter 6: Hydrogen Economy

Foresight Case Study on Land Use Futures in Europe and Beyond

Insight Foresight Institute’s CEO Totti Könnölä, alongside Philine Warnke, led a Case Study, called “Land Use Futures” which explored how a strong focus on ecosystem flourishing could change the current thinking about land use competition. The study was part of the Foresight on Demand project ‘S&T&I for 2050: Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance – Accelerating Sustainability Transitions’ for the European Commission DG RTD.

Status Quo and System Change Analysis

The dynamics of change in global land use are explored from diverse perspectives. After briefly exploring the current distribution of land use, the focus moved to dynamic changes in ecosystems. These aspects are: de- and re-deforestation, land use for agriculture, land degradation, biofuel land use, land use for renewable energy, land use by mining and quarrying, land grab from rich to poor, and land health as an underlying driver of global pandemics, rewilding, land use for tourism, urban sprawl versus densification, floor space per person, human scale city planning and debate around public space ownership and publicness.

Scenarios

Building on the analysis of the dynamic changes of land use, the experts developed three alternative scenarios for the future of land use.

Efficiency and optimisation of land use – Scenario P1: This scenario builds on the current trend of heavy exploitation of the land and it emphasises the optimal use of ecosystem services, especially using land for ensuring maximum production of food and other natural products and resources. Accordingly, land across the EU would be matched to the most appropriate use considering Europe in a globalised world with intensive movement of goods, capital, services and people.

Towards Effective Multiple Use of Land – Scenario P2: In this scenario, society’s needs are met regionally in a coherent relationship between people and their resources. In this less globalised economy, there is a move towards regional autonomy. A Europe that has a greater appreciation of the resources that are available regionally and of the value of trying to live without external inputs, with the help of technological developments. Serving the regional population and keeping regional coherence are key priorities. This reduces the need for transportation and its negative effects. This scenario builds on emerging practices spinning around multiple land use, which refers to the use of land for more than one purpose, for example, grazing of livestock, recreation and timber production.

Land use adapting to nature – Scenario P3: This scenario has emerged after a series of crises and system breakdowns in the context of the climate catastrophe. The economic, social and physical repercussions have halted economic growth and led to a reduction of life expectancy and shrinking of human population. As a means of survival humans are forced to seriously engage with ecosystems. In doing so they are building on the one hand on elements from Indigenous legal thinking about land such as property as “curation”, property as making kin, property as reconciliation, counselling with nature and on the other on early initiatives such as recognising rights of ecosystems or the forming of the “Loire Parliament”.

STI Conclusions

This case study examined three land use scenarios, revealing key trade-offs between efficiency and sustainability. The single-use approach maximises localised efficiency but risks ecosystem harm by ignoring systemic impacts. Multiple-use requires significant learning to integrate diverse practices across urban/rural contexts, while the immersive approach aligns with nature-based solutions and indigenous knowledge. The analysis highlights a necessary evolution: from P1’s land-efficient innovation (exploitative) to P2’s multi-functional use and ultimately P3’s nature-positive adaptation (symbiotic). These scenarios frame a crucial paradigm shift – moving from human-centric land exploitation to nature-adaptive relationships.

Further information

Totti Könnölä and Philine Warnke. Case Study 2: Land Use Futures. In European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Klaus Kubeczko, Project Coordination, Michael Bernstein, Dana Wasserbacher, Beatrix Wepner, Philine Warnke, Totti Könnölä, Liviu Andreescu, Bianca Dragomir, Radu Cristian Gheorghiu, Carlo Sessa, Daniel Cassolà, Žilvinas Martinaitis – “S&T&I for 2050 Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance- Accelerating Sustainability Transitions”. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

S&T&I for 2050 Science, Technology and Innovation for Ecosystem Performance- Accelerating Sustainability Transitions.