Profile Sectors – Insight Foresight Institute

Foresight on Hydrogen Economy – Envisioning a Radical Alternative

The CEO of Insight Foresight Institute, Totti Könnölä, participated in the foresight exercise on the future of hydrogen economy within the project “Foresight for the 2nd Strategic Plan of Horizon Europe (2024-2027)” conducted by the Foresight on Demand Consortium”, alongside Ullrich Lorenz, Rainer Quitzow, Peter Lund, Elisabeth Dütschke and Anne Kantel, Corina Murafa, and Mike Parr. The foresight exercise examined potential configurations of a hydrogen-abundant European energy system in 2040, analyzing how different global political, economic, and social contexts could shape hydrogen’s role in the continent’s energy transition. The aim was to assess hydrogen technologies’ potential to enable full decarbonization of Europe’s economy. A morphological scenario approach was used as a foresight method.

The Four Scenarios on the Hydrogen Economy

I. United States of Europe – Circularity with High Tech: Europe is highly integrated and governed as a federal union. A sustainability-first mindset drives policy and industrial transformation. The hydrogen economy is advanced, autonomous, and based on high-efficiency technologies like solid oxide electrolysis (SOEC). Energy and material circularity reduce dependence on imports, while European hydrogen innovations are globally exported.

II. Forced Sustainability – Circularity Based on Frugality: In a fragmented global order, Europe turns inward, prioritizing resilience and ecological reforms. Localized, low-tech renewable systems support self-sufficiency. Hydrogen is used at the community level for energy buffering, but infrastructure is modest. Frugality and simplicity define lifestyles and industrial production.

III. Private Companies Rule: Large tech corporations dominate global governance and energy systems. The hydrogen economy is expansive, driven by efficiency and private investment. Renewables and hydrogen supply nearly all energy needs, and storage is scaled for full autonomy. Yet, social inequality grows and democratic oversight diminishes.

IV. Green Deal for Europe – A Western-led World: The EU remains a global leader in climate and technology, though internal political processes remain slow. Hydrogen technologies flourish through international partnerships and massive R&I investment. The continent is largely energy self-sufficient, supported by large-scale renewables, advanced storage systems, and intensive hydrogen trade.

Strategic Insights for Research & Innovation Policy

Hydrogen plays three strategic roles: replacing fossil fuels, enabling synthetic fuels, and stabilizing renewable-based grids.

Transition challenges include technology scale-up, overcoming legacy systems, and managing geopolitical shifts.

R&I policy must balance decentralised autonomy with coordinated EU-wide standards and infrastructures.

Special attention is needed to avoid regional disparities and energy poverty during the transition.

Access to critical raw materials, carbon cycles, and circularity in chemical and industrial production are key R&I fronts.

R&I Recommendations:

Smart, pan-European grid systems

Next-generation electrolysis and fuel cells

Hydrogen storage innovations

Long-range transport applications

Carbon capture and usage

Societal impacts, affordability, and decentralised solutions

This strategic foresight contributes to guiding Horizon Europe’s next steps in hydrogen-based sustainable economy, ensuring Europe leads in the development of a clean, resilient, and equitable energy system.

Further information

Ullrich Lorenz, Rainer Quitzow, Peter Lund, Elisabeth Dütschke, Anne Kantel, Corina Murafa, Mike Parr, Totti Könnölä. Chapter 6: Hydrogen Economy – A Radical Alternative. In European Commission: Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Weber, M., Wasserbacher, D. and Kastrinos, N., Foresight on demand – “Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe. Publications Office of the European Union, 2023.

Acess to full report

Foresight towards the 2nd Strategic Plan for Horizon Europe – Chapter 6: Hydrogen Economy

Foresight services to the European Commission

As part of the consortium led by the Austrian Institute of Technology, IFI supports the European Commission by providing “foresight on demand” services in science, technology, research and innovation policy.

DG Research and Innovation has set-up a “Foresight-On-Demand” (FOD) mechanism to respond to the demand for quick inputs to policy-making, drawn on the best available foresight knowledge. FOD is aimed at offering Commission services with timely and effective support related to crisis situations, emerging risks, and policy challenges. The FOD services will include scanning and synthesis of foresight literature and data sources including horizon scanning, rapid foresight data collection and analysis, scenario building, and combinations of the above. Within this framework, IFI is providing foresight support among others to the Mission Boards, European Environmental Agency and the Commission Scientific Advisory Mechanism and SAPEA.

Gonzalo Figuera (ES)

Gonzalo Figuera Díez-Picazo, SM in Technology and Policy (MIT), Engineer École Centrale Paris, Industrial Engineer UPM (Madrid), is an experienced business leader, consultant and entrepreneur, specialized in innovation-based organizations and digital transformation.

Currently, he works as Innovation Director at Innogate to Europe, a company specialised in managing international projects. He has over 20 years of previous experience working for large corporations and engineering companies (Telefonica R&D, INECO), large academic institutions (MIT, UPM), consulting companies (Cluster Consulting, now Oliver Wyman), and technology-based start-ups (N2S-GAMESA Group).

His fields of specialty include ICT (information and communication technologies), software, IoT (internet of things), automation, infrastructures, smart cities, energy and energy efficiency, renewables, bioenergy, cleantech, sustainable transport, electric vehicle, infrastructures and sustainability. He teaches courses on technology and innovation management, entrepreneurship, energy and energy efficiency, and acts as editor and contributor to publications, lectures and seminars related to his work.

Carlos Herreros (ES)

Carlos Herreros has more than 30 years of experience consulting to businesses in different industries and sizes. He has been working in coaching with top level executives to help them in their thinking of strategy and to develop their level of consciousness to cope with the growing complexity of their jobs.

His understanding of strategy is evolutionary in the sense that what it ultimately should pursue is the survival of the organization. Therefore it is probably the most important task of leaders and executives.

He is also interested in learning and teaching the history of management.

He considers himself an expert on neuroscience applied to management and to creative and innovative processes that require grit, self-awareness, flow and resilience; neuroscience provides us with resources and tools for improvement in all the four areas.

Manuel Roque Muñoz (ES)

Manager with extensive multisectorial experience, from an integral vision of the company and a deep knowledge of the entrepreneurship and innovation ecosystem, to the business fabric and the public and institutional sectors.

Executive MBA by IE Business School, Master’s Degree in Economic and Financial Management by Centro de Estudios Financieros, Master’s Degree in Business Tax Consulting by IE Law School and Bachelor’s Degree in Economic and Business Sciences by CEU San Pablo.

Expert in entrepreneurship, innovation, private and public business and R&D financing and in the impact of emerging technologies on new business models and organizations, with great experience in the design of public policies and support programs aimed at entrepreneurs, at the creation of startups, spin-offs and innovative technology-based companies, the promotion of innovation and ICTs, the improvement of business competitiveness and the development of business financing instruments and R&D.

Currently Associate Director of Twice Consulting (strategic consulting, growth and business development and organizations) and Modelandum (consultancy and training in financial modeling).

Previously, Expansion Director of the Industrial Development Society (SODICAMAN, SA), Instituto de Finanzas y Sociedad de Aval de Castilla-La Mancha (raising of investments and financing of companies through venture capital, loans and Guarantees); Director of the Legal-Economic Cabinet of the Ministry of Finance of Castilla-La Mancha; Director of the European Business and Innovation Center (creation and development of companies, training, financing and business innovation); Counselor and founder of the Business Angels Network, GOBAN.

Mentor of startups, technology spin-off and companies (Global Mobile Challenge, TechHub, South Summit, IE, Area 31, Youth Business Spain, EOI, Yuzz) and associate professor in business schools (IE Business School and EOI) imparting various subjects (digital transformation of organizations and new business models, open innovation, design thinking, lean startup, business plan, finance and business financing and R&D) and business management in the ETS Of Industrial Engineers of the University of Castilla-La Mancha.